matt weighs in

[Laura and I were on our honeymoon eight years ago when the towers fell in New York, the Pentagon burned, and Flight 93 crashed in a field in Pennsylvania. It was a time of joy in our lives, but a time of mourning for our country. I hope that each passing year brings more healing to those individuals directly affected.]

I started writing the title of this post, leaving “Mission Miami” alone on the screen for a while. Laura walks by and asks, “Mission Miami? What is that? (pause) Is this going to be about sports?” I would love for this to be about a wonderfully planned trip to South Beach, but yes, honey, this is about sports, the most wonderful sport in the world to be a fan of watching – the National Football League.

The Minnesota Vikings should reach the Super Bowl. I’m being biased? Perhaps, having lived in the great state for 30 years. However, what team in the NFC doesn’t have more question marks than the Vikings? I’ll tackle this later. First, look at what experts say usually takes to win the Big Game, and the Vikings pretty much have it:

* Good-to-great defense -> The Vikings were #6 overall and the #1 run defense in 2008. They have their guys back, including the Williams Wall, Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, and E.J. Henderson at middle linebacker, who was on his way to a possible Pro Bowl birth before breaking his toes. SB winners this decade – Steelers (2), Giants, Patriots (3), Bucs, and Ravens – won, because their D held up strong for 19-20 games.

* Strong quarterback play -> He’s not the Brett Favre of 1996, or probably even 2006, but he’s still a Hall-of-Famer leading a team who was a mentally competent QB away in 2008 from pushing further into the playoffs than a first-round loss. I hate that analysts are saying that he won’t have to do too much and that he should only have to manage the game for the Vikings to do extremely well. That’s weak expectation talk. He will need to play well in the 2nd half of at least 5-6 games this year, in order for the Vikings to win. That’s not managing. That’s going out and winning, which Favre has done more times than not in his career. And he shouldn’t have to pass the ball 33 times per game (40 in week 17), like he did last year with the Jets. Even better, he gets to play 10 games in domes this year and at Carolina and Arizona in December. Worst possible game, as many have talked about, is at Chicago around Christmas. I will mention Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, but only to say that I am more than happy to roll the dice with them as backups. Jackson knows the offense and has chemistry with the players. Sage has been a backup his whole career and is the heir to lead the team in the future. They’ll both be ready. Tom Brady and the Mannings have won a combined five SBs this decade. Brad Johnson (Bucs) and Trent Dilfer (Ravens) had all-time defenses.

* Great running game -> This doesn’t always hold true for winning the big game, but it is certainly an asset. All Day, Adrian Peterson, leads a top-three team rushing game in the NFL (his greatness extends to marketing, seen here). Whether or not Chester Taylor would start on another team is debatable, but he would be considered for the starting RB job on most other teams. AP led the league in rushing last year, and barring injury, there’s no reason he shouldn’t do it again. The Vikings have a couple questions on the offensive line, including starting a rookie at right tackle and basically a rookie at center. But Jim Kleinsasser can help out on the end, and John Sullivan, the new center, not only has Favre calling the signals, but perhaps the best guard in the league on his left, Steve Hutchinson.

* Coaching -> This is the only reason people have a case to write off the Vikings this year. Some might not like what Favre did this summer, with waffling on whether or not he would play. But he is, and he will be solid. Favre is not the reason the Vikings could underachive this year. Brad Childress is the big unknown. He is the Head Coach and has what most would consider all the pieces in place to make a deep playoff run. Whether or not he can lead them to do it is a huge unknown. Fail this year and his job will be open. Childress is not in the same league as SB winning coaches this decade – Belichick, Coughlin, Dungy, Cowher, Gruden, and I’ll give you Tomlin, since he’s well-respected. But win, and he at least isn’t labeled “incompetent.”

The other reason the Vikings have to produce this year, and should, is that they have thrown too much money at key players not to win: Favre-$12 million, left side of O-line-$8+ million, Jared Allen and Wiliams Wall-$30 million!!!, Berrian-$13.7 million, and the kickers will make a combined $4 million. That’s a lot of green to fizzle out of the playoffs one more time.

The team won’t be as good as their best team, 15-1 (1998), or as bad as their worst game, 41-0 (2001). But they should be a good enough team to win 11-12 games, have a first-round bye in the playoffs and at least make the NFC Championship game. Here’s a look at the other teams in the NFC. Why shouldn’t the Vikings be favored to reach the Super Bowl?

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NFC North
* Packers -> Coming off a 6-10 year, they have a nice offense that will keep them in a lot of games. The defense has the makings to be decent, but the 3-4 is still a new scheme, and they moved their best player, Kampman, to a new position. They won’t make a huge jump past 6-10, and I am completely baffled that Bill Simmons on ESPN picked them to win the Super Bowl. Whatever is stronger than baffled and shocked is how I feel about this. My favorite sports writer picking my most hated team to win it all. I about passed out in my chair when I read this. I really think it was just his final way to give the two-finger salute to Minnesota for the Wolves not hiring him as GM and for not letting the Favre story go away.

* Bears -> Jay Cutler is a train wreck waiting to happen, again, without one decent receiver to throw to. Their defense is old and injured to begin the year. Maybe next year. Despite all this, the Bears are receiving buzz nationally. Like the Packers, I don’t get it. Head Coach Lovie Smith gives them a chance, though.

* Lions -> They’re the Lions. Winless in their last 17 games. And now have a rookie starting QB. Good luck with that. But I hope Kevin Smith does well, as he’s one of my fantasy RBs.

NFC West
* Seahawks -> They haven’t been able to put it together since their SB run in 2006. They should be better than 4-12 in 2008 with Matt Hasselbeck returning from injury and some nice receivers, but I’m not sure 9-7 will get them in the playoffs.

* Cardinals -> Two big questions are whether or not Kurt Warner can last another full season. If he can, the offense will again be as good as any in the league, especially with Fitz and Boldin on the outside. And I don’t the think the defense can make the run like they did in last year’s playoffs. That was a fluke, and the Cards could fall back to 8 or 9 wins.

* Rams and 49ers -> I think they are afterthoughts, but hope they give their fans a few things to cheer about this year.

NFC South
I’m going to group these teams together in one paragraph, as any one of them could make some noise this year, but no one has any really strong feelings toward any one of them. The Falcons are coming off a nice year, when many felt they played over their head. Matt Ryan has the extra experience and Michael Turner is a solid back, but they don’t have enough to take the next step. They might make the playoffs, but would not go into the Metrodome and win, again. Buccaneers and Panthers are usually strong opponents against anyone, but the Bucs have too many new pieces and Jake Delhomme is too much of a wild card at this point in his career in Carolina. The Saints? Maybe. Drew Brees is top-three QB in the league, and the offense will put up a ton of points. Their defense is like a ribbon at the end of a finish line, however. Saints will probably represent this division and might fight for homefield in the playoffs.

NFC East
* Giants -> Picked by many, so far, to do good things this season. Eli Manning has improved greatly the last couple years, and now has a huge contract to show for it. He should have deferred some of that money, so they could get some receivers, any receiver. I’ll be shocked if he completes 55% of his passes this year, his career average. The Giants awful finish in 2008 was a trend, not a mirage.

* Cowboys -> So goes Tony Romo, so go the Cowboys. But many forget that outside the NFC West, the Cowboys gave up the 4th most points in the NFC last year. With no T.O. for defenses to key on, they may be more predictable, leading to another year of devastated expectations in their new stadium.

* Redskins -> They can spend all the money they want, but they are still a dismal franchise. No QB to rely on, a running back on the downside of his career, and who to throw to?

* Eagles -> McNabb and Westbrook are always questionable to stay healthy for a whole year. They lost some guys on defense. And they’ll hear dog “jokes” all year. Could be a circus, like the Vikings.

*** And a few paragraphs on the AFC ***

AFC East
* Patriots -> The AFC is theirs to lose, if they have Tom Brady all year. But even with their offensive juggernaut, people wonder if their defense can keep their opponents from scoring as much. I think they will, and the Patriots will win at least 13 games.

* Bills, Dolphins, Jets -> Terrell Owens in Buffalo is the only story we’ll hear out of Buffalo this year. Miami played over their head last year. It will be interesting to see if they have any new wrinkles for the wildcat offense, though. New York will also start a rookie QB. This will turn out worse than Favre’s last five games last year.

AFC Central
* Steelers -> Pittsburgh will be a strong repeat SB contender and fight the Pats all year for AFC supremacy. Their defense is dominant and offense has enough experience and weapons to put together drives for points when needed (example: Thursday night’s game vs. the Titans). This team is good.

* Ravens -> Their defense is still really good, if aging, and their running game, with a breakout year from Ray Rice, should help keep Flacco from dropping off in his 2nd year. Could make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, but no further.

* Browns and Bengals -> I have nothing to say about the Browns. They stink. And I have wanted the Bengals to be good the last couple years, because I like Carson Palmer, but they, like the Seahawks, just can not put it together. It’s the same this year.

AFC South
* Colts and Titans – > Both will again be good in 2009 and have the making to at least push the Steelers and Pats for the AFC crown. Will probably bow out before the AFC Championship game, but will at least make it interesting. I was impressed with Tennessee in their opener at Pittsburgh. Their running game will get on track as the year moves on. Peyton Manning will keep Indianapolis relevant for as long as he’s in the league. They need Bob Sanders back on defense, though.

* Texans and Jaguars -> I really want these teams to do well, because I like many of their players. They just can’t ever seem to put a run of games together where both offense and defense plays well at the same time. Either one could squeak in as a wild card team, but not likely, given the quality of other teams in the AFC.

AFC West
* Chargers -> It’s San Diego and everyone else in the mess out west. If they can keep off-field distractions to a minimum (LDT worrying about who says who is the best RB in the league and Merriman playing nice with his lady-friends), the Chargers should have a playoff birth wrapped up by week 12 or 13. Rivers and LDT are as good a QB-RB combo as there is in the league. The Chargers could sneak into the AFC Championship game, if the Pats’ D or Steelers’ O falters in the playoffs.

* Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders -> I love watching these teams play, because of their fans’ rivalry and hatred for each other. I would watch a three-hour tape of the tailgating before any of these games. But I’ll probably turn the tv off once their games actually start. I might give Denver a little benefit of doubt, but I can’t trust any team with Kyle Orton at QB, even if he is halfway competent. These teams will look up at the Chargers all year.

*****

So there you have it. My first annual, and lengthy, NFL preview. The homer in me is trying to be objective about the Vikings and put their chances in realistic terms. Bottom-line: I really like their chances. Even though 10-6 will again win them the division, they’ll win a minimum 11 games and have a 1st round bye. Despite Brad Childress as Head Coach, they have enough experience in almost every offensive and defensive unit to overcome his faults.

Whether or not it is enough to win the NFC Championship and then defeat New England or Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 44 in Miami will be intriguing to watch and discuss all year. I have a birthday in February. Maybe Laura and I will plan a trip to South Beach after all.