matt weighs in

I think Minnesota Vikings’ fans have come around to the idea of seeing Brett Favre wearing a purple uniform. At least I have. Maybe it’s the team’s 6-1 record. Maybe it’s his 12 TDs and 3 INTs. Or maybe it’s seeing him move the ball up-and-down the field each week, no matter who the opponent has been. Whatever it is, after seeing a really good Vikings team struggle to a 10-6 record in 2008, led by erratic quarterback play, having Favre throwing lasers all over the field with great confidence should have put aside anyone’s doubt that this was a good move by the team.

I wonder what it would take for Green Bay Packers’ fans to do the same. Seeing a Packers win over the Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field will probably help, but only with a total collapse by the Vikings offense, including multiple interceptions by Favre and one late in the game, would the fans be able to fully let go and move on with the team they have. I have believed for some time now that Packers’ fans aren’t as angry with Favre for playing for the Vikings as they are afraid of what he could do with a team ready to do some damage in the post-season. Their fears have been realized through the first seven games of the season, including the first Favre butchering in the teams’ October 5th match-up on Monday Night Football. I think it’s fitting that the 2nd game, at Lambeau, is this close to Halloween, as seeing Favre run out of the tunnel for the first time wearing purple will be the scariest thing they’ve seen in 2009.

The Packers are coming off two nice wins against the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns, outscoring them a combined 57-3. They needed those wins to keep pace with the VIkings in the division and to continue tinkering with their new 3-4 defensive scheme. They performed really well and should be confident heading into this game. The Vikings are not the Lions or the Browns, however.

Even though the Vikings lost to the Pittsburgh SteAlers last weekend, the Vikings and their fans shouldn’t be too discouraged with the result. Disappointed, sure, but not discouraged. Down 10-13 in the fourth quarter, the Vikings were driving for at least a tie, when left guard Steve Hutchinson, the all-pro best-guard-in-football, got beat to his outside, and the Pitt defender swiped the ball from Favre’s hand, leading to a defensive touchdown. Down 10, the Vikings’ Percy Harvin returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD, bringing the Vikings within three once again. The Vikings defense got another stop (they played really well all game, despite Pitt’s offense clicking the previous couple weeks), and Favre led the offense on another long drive to at least attempt a field goal. But then Chester Taylor, the do-everything savvy veteran running back, dropped a screen pass and the ball deflected into another SteAlers defensive player’s hands for a second defensive touchdown. Two long Vikings drives with no points to show for it (and 14 points for the SteAlers).

In their last two games, versus the Ravens and SteAlers, the Vikings have moved the ball up-and-down the field for most of the game. The Vikings, for the most part, have outplayed their opponent in each game. The Packers defense is not as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, so I believe the Vikings won’t have any problem moving the ball against them, again. Bernard Berrian will be limited due to his left hamstring, but turning their long drives into points will be key when they are in the red zone. And they need to put the ball in the end zone if they are at the one-yard-line with Adrian Peterson in the backfield (inexcusable against the SteAlers).

On the other side, the Packers offense has played pretty well ever since the fourth quarter against the Vikings. Despite having to patch together their offensive line due to injuries, Aaron Rodgers has put up Pro-Bowl caliber numbers through the air. The Vikings will be without Antoine Winfield for a second straight game, and despite the defense playing well without him against the SteAlers, this will be a bigger test. Rodgers is clicking with his receivers. I predicted the SteAlers would pass all over the Vikings last weekend and was wrong. I’m making the same prediction for this game. I think Rodgers passes for a lot of yards in this game.

However, just as in the first time these teams played, he will be pressured by the Vikings’ Wall of America defensive line all game. Jared Allen probably won’t have 4.5 sacks again, but 2-3 sounds right. Earlier in the week, I wasn’t quite sure the Vikings would be able to go to Lambeau Field and win this game. But the more I have thought about how the Vikings have played this year, and how well they played last week going into Pittsburgh, I’m a lot more confident in the team. The Packers aren’t as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, and I’m predicting the dramatic.

In the fourth quarter, with the game close (it’s the way it has to be, right?), Favre will lead the Vikings to a field goal or touchdown to either put the Vikings in the lead or extend their lead to 10 points. Favre played 16 years at Lambeau, so despite the emotions and Packers’ fans best attempts to throw him off, I think he’ll be comfortable there. I’m leaving open the possibility that the Packers kick a field goal to win the game, but don’t believe it will happen.

In a well-played game, Favre will play the best, and the Vikings will go into their bye week 7-1, after a 27-24 victory over the Packers.