matt weighs in

My earliest memory of questioning a decision by one of my coaches was my senior year of high school. We were in a dogfight with one of our basketball rivals on our home court late in the fourth quarter. They had the ball, and since we were in a zone defense, they were hanging out by half court holding the ball for the last shot. I was playing at the top of our zone, and I look over at our coach, who is motioning frantically to get my attention.

He mouthed the word, “Press, Press,” which was our signal to automatically foul the other team to stop the clock. We usually only used this call late in a close game when we needed to get the ball back. After hesitating for a couple seconds, I ran up and fouled the guy with the ball (my fourth foul, by the way, which ended up not being a big deal in the end, but still only one away from fouling out of a close game that could still go to overtime). There were 11-12 seconds left on the clock. We had two timeouts left, so we called one to ice the free throw shooter just after he lined up for his two shots, and went to talk over our plan.

I probably did not voice my opposition the right way, but I will just say I asked him something on the more negative side of, “What are you doing?” His answer surprised me, but made sense after he said it. He told us, “We have the two best players on the court, so I want the ball in our hands for the last shot.” Huh. He wanted us to win it, not let them win it on our home court. And the kid I fouled was a decent free throw shooter – 70% or so – but not great, so our coach thought the rowdiness of our fans in our little gym might throw him off and he would miss. Almost.

He made one of two free throws, so we were down one. After dribbling up the court, we called timeout with about six seconds left. I got the ball at the top of the key and started driving toward the hoop. The defenders collapsed on me, hit my arms and the ball, so I lost it, but in the scrum, one of our big guys grabbed it, turned around, and hit a shot at the buzzer, so we won by one point.

Did our coach make the right decision to have us foul at the end of a tie game? It worked out, we won the game, so it was the right decision, right? Maybe. We won the game, but the decision to foul led to us being down by one point. But we made the play our coach hoped we would, and we won the game. Positivity all around.

Things didn’t work out so well for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night football against their rival the Colts. You probably know, but the Patriots had 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with about 2:08 left in the game. Coaches, in this situation, punt the ball 100% of the time. Well, now 99.87% of the time. Belichick and their quarterback, Tom Brady, decided to go for it, and if you’ve seen the replay, missed getting the first down by a foot. Indianapolis got the ball deep in Patriots territory, and they ended up driving the 29 yards for the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds left, not enough time for the Patriots to come back.

Belichick has been getting raked over the coals since the end of the game. He is one of the best coaches in the game over the last decade, but fans are calling him an “idiot,” players are saying it was “the worst coaching decision he has ever made,” and sports talk show guys are yelling just a little bit louder than they normally do over the air. The argument is that the Patriots should have made the Colts offense drive 50-80 yards, the distance depending on the punt and return, against their defense, which is not easy to do in the NFL. But the Colts have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of our generation, and had just moved down the field for a touchdown the previous drive.

Coaches always get blasted for making the safe decisions in games. They call a running play on 3rd and 16. They take a knee at the end of a tie game to go to overtime, instead of trying to move the ball down the field to try to score. They punt the ball from midfield when they are losing by six points with only five or six minutes left. Or they kick a field goal on 4th and goal when they are inside the five yard line, instead of going for a touchdown. There are many instances in a game where both fans and radio guys waste too much time telling each other the coach should have done the exact opposite. Of course, if the coaches had done what the fans and radio guys wanted and it did not work out as they hoped, then they would be saying the coach should have called what he actually did in the game. Fans are always right when the game is over.

I loved the decision by Belichick to go for it on fourth down and do not really care that they did not get the first down. Their defense still had a chance to stop the Colts and win the game. The main reason that I loved the decision is that he was showing trust in his high-powered offense to win the game for the team. Just like my high school coach, he wanted the ball in his team’s hands, not his opponent’s. We never see this in the NFL, especially when a team is playing on the road, as the Patriots were. Many people are saying that Belichick did not trust his defense to stop the Colts one more time. This might be partly true, especially with Manning on the other side, but I think Belichick trusted his offense more than he did not trust his defense. Their offense has defined their team the last few seasons, so he gave them a chance to make a play to win the game. We always say we want teams to play to win, rather than play not to lose. And now, when a team does that, but it doesn’t work out, then we want the opposite?

The Patriots had played a great game and probably proved throughout that they were the better team. In games, they go for it more than most other teams on fourth down and get the first down at a higher percentage than most other teams – 68.5% success (37/54) on fourth down the last three years. So it isn’t like they were doing something out of the ordinary. They have a really good offensive line, a Hall of Fame quarterback, two great receivers, and a running back with decent hands. If any team should have the confidence to make those two yards, New England was it. I will place the blame for not gaining that extra foot on the running back for not running far enough past the first down line before coming back to catch the ball.

The only negative I will throw out is that it could affect their playoff position. They are going to win their own division, so losing the game will not keep them out of the playoffs, but with the Cincinnati Bengals record at 7-2, the Patriots have an uphill battle get the 2nd home field spot in the AFC. But they have shown that they can go to an opponent’s stadium and play pretty well. I do not think they are worried about playing the AFC Championship game back on the Colts home field. Their three losses, all on the road, are by a combined 11 points (Jets, Broncos, and Colts), with the last two coming on the last play of the game. I think the Patriots are still in a good position.

I’ll let you know if I feel the same way if the Minnesota Vikings are ever playing against their rival and lose the game, because their coach made a gutsy call that did not work out.

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Another opinion, with examples of other coaching decisions gone wrong.
And another, by one of my favorite satire writers in any genre.
And a third, blaming the official more than the coaching decision.
Finally, NFL statistics show it was the right decision to go for it on 4th down.