matt weighs in

This Vikings-Saints matchup in the NFC Championship game should absolutely be a thriller. I stated in my previous post, where I predicted a 37-27 Vikings victory, that I wasn’t as confident they could win as I was back in 1998 versus Atlanta. This hasn’t changed, but I’ve shaped my thoughts on what needs to happen for them to steal one in the Superdome.

A Vikings victory comes down to two factors. First, as I said before, their offensive line has to play as well as they have the last 2.5 games. Favre and the Vikings offense has put up ridiculous numbers (yards and points) since after halftime against the Bears.

That is great, but the line needs to open a few holes for Adrian Peterson to break through. He might not break off a 70-yarder, but he needs at least three 10+ yard runs. AP needs to be a real threat, not a perceived threat.

The noise in that building will be so loud, that with the running game going, it will give Favre, the receivers, and the line an extra half second to set up their pass plays. The running game won’t allow the Saints defensive line and linebackers to pin their ears back and feast on Favre.

The second factor will be hitting the Saints, and their fans, in the mouth early, or responding quickly if the Saints land the first punch. The Vikings absolutely cannot give up points early, then either go three-and-out or turn it over, and give the Saints and that crowd an opportunity to go up by two touchdowns.

The Vikings need to score early by a long drive or special teams play. Something that deflates the crowd a little bit and makes them nervous and less vocal. The fans won’t totally back off, nor will the Saints quit, but Favre just needs a little bit of momentum to turn a little lead into a ten point margin.

I have every confidence in the Vikings that they won’t get blown out like the Cardinals were last weekend. I think they are too talented on both sides of the ball to let it get out if hand. They’ve shown they can march down the field in four plays or eleven. They just need to sustain drives, and when they get in the red zone, they need touchdowns, not field goals.

Losing to the Saints would be hard for the Vikings fan base to take, and Favre haters think they would have ammunition to bash him and Childress with an “I told you so,” theme. This isn’t the case. The Saints are different than the Falcons of 1998 and the Giants of 2000. They are good, explosive, opportunistic, and have been on a Super Bowl course the whole season. I don’t think we should be as devastated with a loss as we have been in the past. There would be no shame in losing to New Orleans, unless, of course, it’s another 0-41 shocker.

That will not happen this year, though. The Vikings are ready to make the jump to the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 years. Brad Childress brought in Favre to win this game, the NFC Championship.

Skol Vikings! Beat the Saints, paint the Big Easy purple, and let’s march to the Super Bowl in Miami. It is going to be a great day.

[post-script: One thing I wanted to mention, but failed to do so when I originally published, is this. Whoever wins the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game will be the Super Bowl Champion for the 2009-2010 NFL season. The Colts and Jets are fine teams, but if they are not as complete as either the Vikings or Saints. If the Colts or Jets win the Super Bowl, it would be an upset on par with Patriots over Rams.]