matt weighs in

Last weekend’s first round of the NFL playoffs was interesting, if not always entertaining. With 3 rematches of the final week of the NFL regular season, there was a chance we could have seen some heavyweight contests, but they were mostly duds. I’m not a big Packers fan, as you know, but thank God they put up a fight after the first 10 minutes of their game versus the Cardinals. The first three games did not live up to the hype, as the losing teams could not get out of their own way to make the score close enough to have a chance.

I had picked the Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots, and Cardinals to win the games and went 2-2. The Bengals proved to be frauds, as was shown in their trip to Minnesota in December. Their passing game was non-existent, and they had no answer for the tough Jets defense. I thought they would show more heart at home after being embarrassed by the Jets in week 17. The Jets barely squeaked into the playoffs and proved they belong, but I don’t think the rookie, Mark Sanchez, wins another road playoff game at the Chargers this weekend.

I thought the Cowboys would have another easy game against an overmatched Eagles team – the same outcome as the week before in week 17. The Cowboys have played very well for a month, including a win at the Saints. Their running game has been solid to go along with their quick-hitting passing game. And their defense has been swarming opposing quarterbacks, disrupting their timing. I’ll have my Cowboys-Vikings prediction up later this week.

I was completely shocked at the early knockout punches that Baltimore threw at the Patriots. Come on. The Pats were the team of the decade, still have great pieces at QB, WR and head coach, and that’s the performance they put forth on their home field? Teams come back from early deficits all the time, but when you just give the ball away over and over, you’re not going to win, no matter how great you are. Turnovers are and always will be the great equalizer in the game. Brady, Moss, and Belichick should have a fun offseason. Can the Ravens pull off another shocker against the Colts, the winningest team of the decade? I don’t believe in Peyton Manning and this Colts team as much as others, but I don’t see the Ravens slowing the other great QB in the AFC. Colts are my pick.

Finally, to the Packers and Cardinals, who staged an epic duel in the desert on Sunday night. I thought the Cardinals would win a close game, maybe 27-21, but wow…it turned out so much better. Rooting against the Packers has been a favorite part of being an NFL fan for me. I told people leading up to the game, whenever we’d talk about a potential Vikings-Packers playoff matchup, that I hoped it didn’t happen, because I just don’t like seeing the Packers have success. I would rather see them lose in the first round than see the Vikings beat them later. And the Cardinals held on long enough to send them home.

I will admit that I thought the game was basically over when it was 17-0 early and again when it was 31-10 early in the 2nd half. But two great Packers plays happened. First, Woodson stripped Fitzgerald when the Cards were going to probably score to make it 24-0. The Packers drove and scored their first TD, making it 17-7, keeping them in the ballgame. Second, the Packers kicked an onside kick after making it 31-17, and then scored again to pull within seven points. Two huge plays that surely killed Cardinals momentum at key points of the game.

The game went down as one of the greatest offensive slugfests in NFL history. How ironic that a defensive play decided the game, which I actually Twittered about early in the fourth quarter? Usually, they say the offense with the ball last wins. I said that the defense who makes the first stand would win. So it was.

I’m not going to get caught up in the hype over the missed facemask call on the final play. It happened to the Vikings at Chicago earlier in the year, so I resolved myself to think teams need to win the games before it gets to that point. Rodgers should have won the game on the bomb on the first play of overtime. Then the defensive play never would have happened.

To the Cardinals. In my mind, Kurt Warner has been a Hall of Fame player since the middle of the 2008 season. He has been too good for too long, played in too many big games, including three Super Bowls, while putting up huge numbers. He is good and proved it again against the Packers. He is decisive and crisp with his passes, and his receivers always seem to come down with the ball near them. Their offense has some balance to it, too, as they were able to run the ball effectively against a solid Packers defense.

Now they need to try to duplicate this feat on the road against the Saints. I don’t think they can do it. They will keep it close for most of the game, but that Superdome crowd will disrupt at least three Cards’ drives, either by forcing penalties or turnovers, and the Saints will turn them into points. If the Vikings win, I would rather they faced the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game. I think the Saints will be there, though.

So, to recap, Colts, Saints, and Chargers, all home teams, will play in the games to go to the Super Bowl. You’ll have to wait on pins and needles until later in the week to read if I think the Vikings or Cowboys will join them.