matt weighs in

Bill Simmons, ESPN.com’s resident Boston sports fan turned prominent national sports writer and podcaster, wrote a “Levels of Losing” column back in 2002, in which he attempted to properly put into context, with examples, the level to which many fans experience pain when their favorite teams lose a big game. It was the second place I referenced Sunday night, 135 minutes after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship game. The Vikings were one play and a made field goal at the end of regulation away from going to their first Super Bowl in 33 years. But then it happened, the Vikings lost the coin toss in overtime, didn’t touch the ball again, and limped into the off-season with questions of what could have been and what might be for next year.

(For those wondering, those immediate 135 minutes after the game were spent with my friends on Twitter, while listening to Vikings Fan Line on KFAN-AM 1130, which was one big cathartic group hug as we began to accept that there was no Super Bowl for the Vikings in two weeks).

Simmons’ Level II loss for a fan base is the “Stomach Punch” game, which as you can imagine, takes your breath away and leaves you gasping for air, and an explanation, as to what just occurred. He explains it like this:

Definition: Now we’ve moved into rarefied territory, any roller-coaster game that ends with A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play, or B) one of your guys failing in the clutch…usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all…always haunting, sometimes scarring…there are degrees to the Stomach Punch Game, depending on the situation…for instance…Cleveland’s Earnest Byner fumbling against Denver when he was about two yards and 0.2 seconds away from sending the Browns to the Super Bowl.

Yep. A stomach punch. Breathless. No words to explain. If Porter for the Saints would have ran the INT back for a touchdown, you would have combined the Stomach Punch game with Level III’s “The Guillotine” game and would have challenged his Level I game for losing, simply titled, “That Game.” At least it wasn’t That Game.

The Vikings seemed to have a really good game plan for the Saints, as most statistical categories show. They dominated in yards gained, first downs, time of possession, 3rd down conversion percentage, and plays ran. They forced the Saints to punt seven times. However, as you know, the Vikings lost the turnover battle, fumbling three times and, gulp, throwing two interceptions, while only falling on one Saints fumble.

Despite this, the Vikings were in a great position to win the game. They had the ball with just over a minute left in Saints territory and two timeouts. After two running plays gained no yards, the Vikings called timeout. We’ll skip over the 12 men on the field penalty, as that was just sophomoric, but I do want to talk about the play call.

If you watch the replay, you will see that the Vikings are in the exact same set after the penalty as they were when they were whistled for 12 men. The only difference is that the fullback, Tahi, is not on the field for 3rd and 15. The Vikings were going to pass and try to gain some more yards on this 3rd down play, there was just some confusion on what personnel package they were using. And I have no problem with calling the pass play on 3rd down. They rolled out to the right, had receivers at three different levels near the sideline, and the right decision should have been easy to make.

We’ll maybe never know why, but quarterback Brett Favre decided to throw it to the middle of the field to Sidney Rice, who was open for a second, but never should have been considered. We know he should have thrown it to Bernard Berrian on the sideline or ran a few yards, but he didn’t, and the interception happened. I can only think that Favre thought they needed more than a few yards to give Longwell a chance to win the game or he saw something pre-snap to make him think the middle of the field would be open with all the action moving to the right in front of him. He didn’t take into account that the Saints right corner, Porter, would be moving that way as well, putting him in perfect position to pick off the pass.

After making the right play all season, I still can not believe that Favre chose that moment to give so many people the satisfaction of saying, “I told you so.” I can not for the life of me believe he didn’t hit Berrian and give Longwell the chance to win it, which is what the Vikings were playing for after they got the first down at the Saints 33 and 1:06 remaining. If he throws it to Berrian, he catches it and goes out of bounds or is tackled between the 30 and 33 yard line, giving Longwell a very makeable 47-51 yard field goal attempt.

As much as that decision hurt the Vikings chances to win the hard-fought game, there were plenty of other missed opportunities that contributed to the game being tied and sent into overtime. I’m one to look at the body of a game as a whole and not think that one play is fully responsible for a win or loss. I try not to get caught up in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality when so much is at stake. After the interception, the Vikings still had overtime to win the game.

Below are the other factors in the game that kept the Vikings from blowing the Saints out of their own building in the biggest game of the season:

* Fumbled in huge spots: Adrian Peterson missed a handoff from Favre toward the end of the 1st half, costing the Vikings at least three points, and Bernard Berrian fumbled inside the 15-yard line with under ten minutes left in the 4th quarter, also costing them at least three points. Percy Harvin fumbled inside his own 15-yard line early in the 4th quarter, setting up a very short field for the Saints, and they scored a touchdown. (Quick word about AP’s fumbles: the Vikings recovered two of the three fumbles. Vikings scored a TD after his second fumble and Favre was picked off in the drive after AP busted his @ss to get ten yards downfield and beat three Saints to the ball on this third fumble. Let it be known that the refs missed a high-low illegal hit on Favre on his interception and the Vikings should have had first down at the Saints 19 after).

* Failed to capitalize on Saints mistakes: see AP’s fumble above, which happened after Reggie Bush fumbled a punt, giving the Vikings great field position and the chance to take the lead into the half. But also, the Saints fumbled two other times and recovered themselves. Drew Brees fumbled a snap deep in his own territory in the 4th quarter. It isn’t easy to pick up by the defensive line, but we have seen it happen. And Brees also fumbled deep in his own territory when he was sacked by Ray Edwards with just under five minutes left. If the Vikings get that last fumble by Brees, they take the lead by three or seven, forcing the Saints to drive to tie or win the game. The Vikings had forced the Saints to go three-and-out twice in the fourth quarter, so it was not going to be easy for the Saints to get the points.

* Failed to hang on to an interception in overtime: Oh what might have been. Tyrell Johnson had a tipped pass in his fingertips for an interception on the Saints final drive. Tipped balls are never easy to catch for defensive backs, as they are concentrating on making the hit on the receiver, but it looks like the ball hits pretty softly in his hands, and that it was definitely a play he should have made. The Vikings just needed to get one stop in overtime, and they were going to drive the field to win the game. Before the dropped INT, the Vikings had the Saints at 3rd and 10, before giving up a nine yard catch that was upheld on replay. Saints just barely converted on 4th and 1, and easily could have had the spot overturned on replay. Yep, what might have been.

People like to say that one team might have deserved to win a game over another, and many are saying this about the Saints. The Saints forced five Vikings turnovers, including two inside their own 20 yard line and an interception to prevent the Vikings from attempting a field goal to win the game. Others are saying that the Vikings deserved to win the game, because they dominated most of the statistical categories, as I stated above, and because they went into a very hostile environment and went toe-to-toe with the home team. I don’t look at it like one team deserved the win over the other.

In this game, which was pretty evenly matched (mostly because of turnovers, but that’s part of the game), I would say that the Saints survived to win the game. The Vikings moved the ball at will on offense and easily would have scored in the high-30s if not for the turnovers. And the VIkings defense forced seven punts, forced three fumbles themselves, but just could not make one more big play that would have helped out the offense. The Vikings would have survived their turnovers and missed opportunities, if they had won that game.

Alas, we are left to pick up the pieces of another year of being thisclose to seeing the Vikings in a Super Bowl. It was one heck of an exciting game to watch, and as much as I was left wondering why I was left gasping for breath when it was over, I couldn’t deny that I had been entertained.

At the beginning of the year, and before the playoffs started, I was telling people that getting to the NFC Championship game would be a successful season for the Vikings, even though I predicted they should go to the Super Bowl. The chance to get to the big game was the reason the team brought Favre in as their quarterback, and he took them to that point.

To get that close, and have it end in a Stomach Punch game, will take a long time to get over for Vikings fans. But think of what the players must be feeling. They know that they were one play away from achieving a life-long dream. And whether that important play occurred in the first half, second half, final minute, or in overtime, the Vikings let it slip through their fingers.

Just keep taking deep breaths, and you’ll feel better soon.

[Update: Simmons wrote a ESPN.com column on January 29, 2010, and specifically addressed Level I, That Game. He says he was selfish and made a mistake to think that only Red Sox fans could suffer like that. He's revised Level I to say that "the equation should look like this: (Guillotine + Stomach Punch) x (already tortured history) x (significance of the game itself) x (catchy moniker) = Level 1." And then he goes on to list the top 15 franchises, with examples, currently eligible for a Level I defeat. Read it yourself and weep at where Vikings fans rank.]