matt weighs in

The unthinkable is about to happen for Minnesota Vikings fans. We’ve been waiting nine years for another chance to reach the Super Bowl, and here we are, just a few short days away from the most anticipated Vikings’ game since an ill-fated Sunday to end the 1998 season. But this 2009 team has Brett Favre leading them, which might give them an even better chance at winning than that great 1998 team, which were 10 point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.

First, let me backtrack and retell my feelings over the last couple years, as the Vikings flirted with bringing Favre in to be their quarterback. You will recall that the summer of 2008 was the first time rumors flew that he might become a Vikings player. Here is what I said in a post from July 8, 2008:

Right now, I don’t believe I could root for [Favre] as a Viking. Favre in a purple uniform? If it happens, and the Vikings go to the Super Bowl with him at QB, I would cheer for Favre throwing three interceptions and fumbling twice, but hope for the Minnesota defense to score three TDs and the team win 21-17…or something like that.

I said this over and over the last two summers to whomever would listen. I just could not wrap my head around him wearing a purple uniform, gunslingin’ all over the field. Fast-forward 13 months. This is what I wrote after many long, slow, deep breaths to catch my composure when he signed with the Vikings on August 18, 2009:

I still don’t know if I’ll be able to root for Favre in a Vikings uniform, but I do know that I’ll be rooting for the idea of him leading this team to championship glory. I just hope the season doesn’t fade into nothing…If nothing else, it will be one heck of a trip. Mission: Miami!

You see what I did there? I started to talk myself into it. This was after the first pre-season game, when Sage Rosenfels played very well against Colts’ practice squad guys. I was ready to roll with Sage into the season and see where it led. Deep down, I think I knew the Vikings would be better with Favre, but then Head Coach Brad Childress made one last call to Favre, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Finally, in my NFL Preview post from September 11, 2009, I laid out all the ingredients for a Super Bowl team, concluding that the Vikings definitely had what it took: good-to-great defense (ended #6 overall), strong quarterback play (you know Favre’s numbers: 33 TDs & 7 INTs), great running game (Adrian Peterson had 1400 yards and 18 TDs), and they had to overcome coaching (Childress only had one or two blips on the season). Overall, not bad. I said:

The Minnesota Vikings should reach the Super Bowl. I’m being biased? Perhaps, having lived in the great state for 30 years. However, what team in the NFC doesn’t have more question marks than the Vikings? Bottom-line: I really like their chances…they’ll win a minimum 11 games and have a 1st round bye. Despite Brad Childress as Head Coach, they have enough experience in almost every offensive and defensive unit to overcome his faults.

I also predicted that the Saints would fight for homefield advantage and wondered whether any team from the NFC had enough to compete with the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl. Well, two of three isn’t bad. You can read my full, mostly accurate preview, here.

Now to the game. And oh what a game it will be. Everyone, rightfully so, wants to talk about Favre and Brees. They were two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and considering Favre’s history and Brees’s future, they should get top-billing. They will both play well, getting at least two touchdowns, but they will not be the reason their team wins the game.

One of these teams will win the game based on their offensive line play. The Saints offensive line is one of the best units in the NFL at preventing quarterback sacks. Part of this has to do with the Saints quick-strike passing attack, but they do have a couple pro-bowlers on the line, so they are good. They form a nice pocket for Brees to pass out of, and recently, they’ve even started run-blocking pretty well. They had a little hiccup against the Cowboys in week 15, but overall, their line has been consistently protecting Brees and allowing him the time to put up great numbers, including a league-record 70%+ completion rate. However, they will have their hands full against a Vikings defensive line who has played very well the last 2 1/2 games, including a dominating performance against an above-average Cowboys offensive line in last weekend’s Divisional round. This will be the matchup that decides it.

On the other side, the Vikings offensive line has been often-maligned this season, despite the numbers Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre put up. I think they have been getting a bad rap, because their worst game of the season occurred on a Sunday night against the Cardinals. They could not establish the run, and Favre did not have time to make the throws he had been making all season. Bryant McKinnie was even pulled from the game for his bad play, and Childress considered pulling Favre in the 3rd quarter due to the beating he was taking. The media and fans were in unison: if the offensive line could not get it together, and immobile Favre could not make plays running for his life. And without the threat of a Peterson game-breaker, we all thought the Vikings offense was basically neutralized. Where could they turn?

And then it just started to click. From after halftime of the Vikings week 16 game versus the Bears through the thorough domination versus the Cowboys, the Vikings scored 108 points. Peterson still wasn’t breaking off long runs, but he had enough 5-8 yard runs to keep opposing linebackers close. And Favre has been superb, a season-long trend. He’s had time to scan the field, looking for his receivers, and has put the ball on their numbers almost every time. I have not complained about the Vikings offensive line in January, which was unheard of a month ago. The Vikings handled the Cowboys vaunted defensive line, and I think they’ll be able to neutralize the Saints as well.

I told people this week that I am not as confident going into this NFC Championship as I was back in 1998, and even in 2000. I knew the 1998 team would beat the Falcons, and I had a pretty good feeling the 2000 team would beat the Giants. This year, however, I’m not as confident, which doesn’t have anything to do with not thinking the Vikings can’t win. I think they can. Except they are playing the Saints, who have been an almost unanimous pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl since late-October.

The Vikings beating the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans would not be an upset along the lines of the Falcons beating the Vikings in 1998, but it is a long shot. The Saints are built to win this year. They have had an unforgettable season, and their defense has been playing well. It would be a great accomplishment for the team and the city of New Orleans for the Saints to march to Miami with a victory.

However, the Saints have not faced the Vikings, who are the most complete team left in the playoffs. The Saints lost two of their last three games at home, and those games still mattered, as home field in the playoffs was not wrapped up, yet. I think Adrian Peterson does break free once, juking former Vikings safety Darren Sharper (he’s lost a step), and Favre has an above-average game. I don’t think the Vikings defense totally slows the Saints offense, but Jared Allen or Kevin Williams will strip-sack Brees at least once, giving the Vikings some much-needed momentum in a quiet dome.

I will admit that I am a bit worried about Percy Harvin’s migraine returning today and that K. Williams and Ray Edwards are slowed by knee injuries, but it’s not enough to stop believing in this Vikings team. They will play a great game on the game’s biggest stage, pulling off the mini-upset.

Vikings will win 37-27, advancing to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. Fans will be able to forget the debacles of 1998 and 2000, and, indeed, we’ll have our “Pants on the Ground” in South Beach. The Mission: Miami will be complete.