matt weighs in

This reluctant Super Bowl XLV preview is brought to you by the colors black and yellow (Pittsburgh Steelers) and the failing franchise known as the Minnesota Vikings.

As a fan of the purple and gold, the last couple weeks of football have been ridiculous to watch. Bears vs. Packers in the NFC Championship? Come on, now. And the Green Bay Packers making the Super Bowl? Oh my…why, God, why?

I successfully predicted this Super Bowl matchup before the Conference Championship games, but I would have rather had the Bears meet the Steelers. I know the Steelers would have beaten the Bears for the championship. I am not so sure about them beating the Packers, though.

We have heard a lot about both teams’ defenses and both teams’ quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger just finds a way to win big games, even though he’s rarely mentioned on the same level as Brady, Manning, and Brees. And Aaron Rodgers, who is sometimes mentioned on the same level as those guys, would be the first QB taken by many if they were starting a brand new team today.

I don’t think this game will end up as high-scoring as their 2009 instant classic (37-36 Steelers on the last play of the game), but I think both teams get into the 20s. The Steelers are a very balanced team, where they can run and throw the ball down the field. It’s a great recipe for success in a game of this magnitude and might be enough to keep the Packers defense off-balance.

The Packers offense isn’t as balanced, even though their running game showed up a little bit in the playoffs. It’ll be hard-going against the Pitt front 7, however, so I think the Packers come out passing four out of every five downs. By spreading the Steelers talented defensive players out, Rodgers can try to find the one matchup to exploit on each play, which he is one of the best at doing.

Can Rodgers do it enough though, especially with an improved, but still somewhat unreliable, offensive line in front of him. The Bears hit Rodgers a lot after the opening drive of their game (he even got crushed on his TD run), and he was nowhere near as effective.

Pittsburgh is one of the hardest hitting teams in the league, so if they can get to Rodgers early – say, three times in the first quarter – I like Pitt’s chances. Rodgers will get happy feet, won’t progress through his reads as well as he can, and Green Bay won’t pick up huge chunks of yardage we all know they can get.

The Steelers move more methodically down the field, even though they have big play receivers in Mike Wallace, and even Hines Ward on his aging legs. And with Clay Matthews breathing down his neck, Big Ben won’t be able to sit back in the pocket and find his guys. But he’s one of the best QBs after the pocket has collapsed. He makes play after play moving his feet, since he is so big and hard to bring down. His receivers know to keep moving if they are initially covered, and if they find open space, Ben will find them.

Last year, I was convinced before the playoffs started that the winner of the NFC would win the Super Bowl, and the Saints did. This year, I was convinced the winner of the AFC would win the Super Bowl. I really dislike that Green Bay is playing so well the last five games, when they have had to win each one or have their season over.

Not this time. The Steelers win Super Bowl XLV mostly due to their talent on both sides of the ball, and because they have been there before. As I said, Big Ben finds ways to win the big games.

Also, I won’t stand for watching the team I root against the most hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It’s petty, but I don’t care. Green Bay can not win this game. So they won’t. Go Vikings.

Steelers win 27-23.