matt weighs in

[Note: Read part 2 of my college football solution here, after reading part 1.]

I will say it again: College football needs a playoff. Here, in the first of two posts, I am going to tell you why and answer some questions in the way of making it happen.

The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) has started Facebook and Twitter accounts to help make their case that the current system of finding the two teams to play for the “national championship” is the best way to do it. I tackled this back in January 2008, but I feel the need to tackle it once more. College football needs to get this right.

The questions that need to be answered are these:

• How many teams should be in a college football playoff?
• How should these teams be determined?
• When do they play the playoff games?
• Where do they play the playoff games?
• What happens to the current bowl system?

I will try to tackle these as quickly as possible.

How many teams should be in a college football playoff?
I am convinced that 16 teams should play in a college football playoff. Eight teams are too few, as there are 11 conferences, and 24 or 32 teams are too many. Just as in college basketball, where the lower seeded teams will not win the championship and there should not be more than 32 teams in March Madness, there are not more than 16 teams in college football that have a chance to win the championship.

How should these teams be determined?
Back in early 2008 when I first wrote about the BCS, my favorite option for determining the 16 playoff teams was to take the top 16 based on the final BCS rankings of the year. I now think that the right way to choose the 16 playoff teams is by taking the 11 conference champions, and then add the top five BCS ranked teams who did not win their conference. This way, the rankings, and playing a tough schedule are still important, since teams can still make the playoff by getting one of the five “at-large” spots. A committee can then rank them 1-16 to determine seeding in the playoffs (or, again, use the BCS rankings to determine seeding).

The conference champions have to be used, otherwise there is no reason for these conferences to exist in the top NCAA division. Troy and Middle Tennessee State play in the Sun Belt conference and Ohio, Temple, and Central Michigan play in the Mid-American conference. One of these teams will win their conference, respectively, yet none are ranked in the top 25 of any poll, including the BCS, so none have a chance to ever be the BCS “champion.” The BCS does not even include all teams or conferences in the top NCAA division there is? Is that fair? For what and for whom are these teams playing? The winners of all conferences need to be included. Teams in the major BCS conferences play each other every year, so their rankings will be inflated, since they are playing teams deemed to be tougher. Compete in your tough conference, or at least be ranked highly, and your team still has a good shot of making it in my playoff scenario.

When do they play the playoff games?
A 16 team playoff would need four weekends to determine a champion. Teams should play an 11- or 12-game regular season schedule with a conference championship game, if needed, played after to determine the winner. This can be done by the first week of December. Playoff games take place over the next five weeks, with a week off between quarterfinals and semi-finals. The semi-finals would be played on New Year’s Day and the Championship game played the week after. Here is what I wrote back in 2008, using the 2007 college season as an example:

There were 14 weeks between Saturday, September 1, 2007, and Saturday, December 1, 2007. This would have allowed teams to play 12 games, have one bye week during the season, and then have conference championship games on December 1st, if the conference chooses to do so.

Tell me this can not work. In that scenario, 1st round games would have been December 8th, quarterfinals on December 15th, time off, then semi-finals on January 1st and the championship game would have been January 8th. It won’t play out exactly like this each year, but the season start date can be moved around to accommodate this schedule each year.

Where do they play the playoff games?
The playoff games would take place on the higher seeded team’s home field in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The semi-finals and championship games would be played on neutral sites, pre-determined by college football. See next question.

What happens to the current college football bowl system?
My favorite part is that the current bowl system could still be utilized. Most of the college bowl games now are filled by teams who finished third or lower in their conference. These teams can still go to the Insight Bowl, the Hawaii Bowl, or the Chik-fil-a Bowl. But people, including the NCAA and BCS bo-bos are more worried ($$$$) about the major bowls played New Year’s Day and after – these are the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and National “Championship” Game. These can still be used.

Two of these Bowls can host the four remaining playoff teams in the semi-final games on New Year’s Day. The other two Bowls, whatever date they are set to play, can host the losers of the quarterfinal games. Each Bowl is guaranteed to host a game with great teams playing. The National Championship Game rotates to each BCS Bowl location now, and that could continue, so every four years, each bowl will host two major games, earning major dollars.

I think I will stop here for now. For my Daily Rave on Tuesday or Wednesday, I will attempt to break down how the current college football season will play out and which teams would probably get in my playoff scenario versus taking the top-16 teams in the BCS rankings. Since we do not have a playoff yet, this speculation is not perfect, but it is closer to getting it right than the current BCS system. I have said it many times before, and will say it again here, there is B.S. in B.C.S.

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Again, here are the links for the BCS Facebook and Twitter accounts. Have fun reading the savagery:
Facebook: www.facebook.com/pages/Inside-the-BCS/208135432288
Twitter: twitter.com/INSIDEtheBCS

Also, you will see me put “champion” in quotes whenever I talk about the current college football system of determining its “National Champion.” Sorry, the current “champion” is as mythical as a unicorn or Hogwarts.

Read Part 2!

My earliest memory of questioning a decision by one of my coaches was my senior year of high school. We were in a dogfight with one of our basketball rivals on our home court late in the fourth quarter. They had the ball, and since we were in a zone defense, they were hanging out by half court holding the ball for the last shot. I was playing at the top of our zone, and I look over at our coach, who is motioning frantically to get my attention.

He mouthed the word, “Press, Press,” which was our signal to automatically foul the other team to stop the clock. We usually only used this call late in a close game when we needed to get the ball back. After hesitating for a couple seconds, I ran up and fouled the guy with the ball (my fourth foul, by the way, which ended up not being a big deal in the end, but still only one away from fouling out of a close game that could still go to overtime). There were 11-12 seconds left on the clock. We had two timeouts left, so we called one to ice the free throw shooter just after he lined up for his two shots, and went to talk over our plan.

I probably did not voice my opposition the right way, but I will just say I asked him something on the more negative side of, “What are you doing?” His answer surprised me, but made sense after he said it. He told us, “We have the two best players on the court, so I want the ball in our hands for the last shot.” Huh. He wanted us to win it, not let them win it on our home court. And the kid I fouled was a decent free throw shooter – 70% or so – but not great, so our coach thought the rowdiness of our fans in our little gym might throw him off and he would miss. Almost.

He made one of two free throws, so we were down one. After dribbling up the court, we called timeout with about six seconds left. I got the ball at the top of the key and started driving toward the hoop. The defenders collapsed on me, hit my arms and the ball, so I lost it, but in the scrum, one of our big guys grabbed it, turned around, and hit a shot at the buzzer, so we won by one point.

Did our coach make the right decision to have us foul at the end of a tie game? It worked out, we won the game, so it was the right decision, right? Maybe. We won the game, but the decision to foul led to us being down by one point. But we made the play our coach hoped we would, and we won the game. Positivity all around.

Things didn’t work out so well for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night football against their rival the Colts. You probably know, but the Patriots had 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with about 2:08 left in the game. Coaches, in this situation, punt the ball 100% of the time. Well, now 99.87% of the time. Belichick and their quarterback, Tom Brady, decided to go for it, and if you’ve seen the replay, missed getting the first down by a foot. Indianapolis got the ball deep in Patriots territory, and they ended up driving the 29 yards for the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds left, not enough time for the Patriots to come back.

Belichick has been getting raked over the coals since the end of the game. He is one of the best coaches in the game over the last decade, but fans are calling him an “idiot,” players are saying it was “the worst coaching decision he has ever made,” and sports talk show guys are yelling just a little bit louder than they normally do over the air. The argument is that the Patriots should have made the Colts offense drive 50-80 yards, the distance depending on the punt and return, against their defense, which is not easy to do in the NFL. But the Colts have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of our generation, and had just moved down the field for a touchdown the previous drive.

Coaches always get blasted for making the safe decisions in games. They call a running play on 3rd and 16. They take a knee at the end of a tie game to go to overtime, instead of trying to move the ball down the field to try to score. They punt the ball from midfield when they are losing by six points with only five or six minutes left. Or they kick a field goal on 4th and goal when they are inside the five yard line, instead of going for a touchdown. There are many instances in a game where both fans and radio guys waste too much time telling each other the coach should have done the exact opposite. Of course, if the coaches had done what the fans and radio guys wanted and it did not work out as they hoped, then they would be saying the coach should have called what he actually did in the game. Fans are always right when the game is over.

I loved the decision by Belichick to go for it on fourth down and do not really care that they did not get the first down. Their defense still had a chance to stop the Colts and win the game. The main reason that I loved the decision is that he was showing trust in his high-powered offense to win the game for the team. Just like my high school coach, he wanted the ball in his team’s hands, not his opponent’s. We never see this in the NFL, especially when a team is playing on the road, as the Patriots were. Many people are saying that Belichick did not trust his defense to stop the Colts one more time. This might be partly true, especially with Manning on the other side, but I think Belichick trusted his offense more than he did not trust his defense. Their offense has defined their team the last few seasons, so he gave them a chance to make a play to win the game. We always say we want teams to play to win, rather than play not to lose. And now, when a team does that, but it doesn’t work out, then we want the opposite?

The Patriots had played a great game and probably proved throughout that they were the better team. In games, they go for it more than most other teams on fourth down and get the first down at a higher percentage than most other teams – 68.5% success (37/54) on fourth down the last three years. So it isn’t like they were doing something out of the ordinary. They have a really good offensive line, a Hall of Fame quarterback, two great receivers, and a running back with decent hands. If any team should have the confidence to make those two yards, New England was it. I will place the blame for not gaining that extra foot on the running back for not running far enough past the first down line before coming back to catch the ball.

The only negative I will throw out is that it could affect their playoff position. They are going to win their own division, so losing the game will not keep them out of the playoffs, but with the Cincinnati Bengals record at 7-2, the Patriots have an uphill battle get the 2nd home field spot in the AFC. But they have shown that they can go to an opponent’s stadium and play pretty well. I do not think they are worried about playing the AFC Championship game back on the Colts home field. Their three losses, all on the road, are by a combined 11 points (Jets, Broncos, and Colts), with the last two coming on the last play of the game. I think the Patriots are still in a good position.

I’ll let you know if I feel the same way if the Minnesota Vikings are ever playing against their rival and lose the game, because their coach made a gutsy call that did not work out.

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Another opinion, with examples of other coaching decisions gone wrong.
And another, by one of my favorite satire writers in any genre.
And a third, blaming the official more than the coaching decision.
Finally, NFL statistics show it was the right decision to go for it on 4th down.

Quick and to the point: thank a veteran the next chance you get. Rightfully so, our veterans in the U.S. have a day that is theirs. A day to honor their service to our country, whether volunteered or drafted, and the sacrifices they and their families made or are currently making.

I spent a lot of time with my Grandpa Butch and Grandma Dorothy from the time I was in grade school up until their deaths earlier this decade – 20+ years. I would ask him about his service in World War II every once in awhile, but one of my regrets is not talking about those years one more time with both of them and either recording it or writing it down.

I remember being fascinated by the stories of his ship being shot at in the Mediterranean. Maybe a family member can write a memoir of it, because I really enjoy telling my own kids stories from when I or their Grandpa Larry were younger. And I know they would enjoy hearing Grandpa Butch’s stories as much as I did. One of the only pictures I have on my desk at work is of Siena coloring with Grandpa Butch not long before he passed.

Many people choose to honor our veterans, because of the motto: “Land where we’re free, because they were brave.” And I, too, believe in that patriotism.

However, I honor our vets, because of the selflessness with which most of them chose to serve. They chose to leave family and close friends for months at a time to face horror and gore most of us can not imagine, but can somewhat understand through movies and documentaries. Our soldiers had no idea what they were getting into, but went and served honorably.

One of the most touching scenes I have ever unexpectedly encountered was in an airport when Laura and I were returning from a trip (we were either in Newark or San Diego). We saw a huge group of people, women, men, and kids, waiting outside security. Some had signs, but I wasn’t exacty sure what they were doing there. And just as we were passing, there was an erruption of cheers as a group of soldiers walked into view. They were returning from the Middle East after being gone for months. Hugs for and tears by all.

One could not help getting caught up in the moment and see on their faces what the separation did to them, and what joy they were feeling to be reunited, safe for a little longer before their next tour.

So, thank you veterans. You are brave and deserve all the praise you get, even if you usually think that you are just doing your job. We owe you. And that’s why you are my rave for today.