matt weighs in

This reluctant Super Bowl XLV preview is brought to you by the colors black and yellow (Pittsburgh Steelers) and the failing franchise known as the Minnesota Vikings.

As a fan of the purple and gold, the last couple weeks of football have been ridiculous to watch. Bears vs. Packers in the NFC Championship? Come on, now. And the Green Bay Packers making the Super Bowl? Oh my…why, God, why?

I successfully predicted this Super Bowl matchup before the Conference Championship games, but I would have rather had the Bears meet the Steelers. I know the Steelers would have beaten the Bears for the championship. I am not so sure about them beating the Packers, though.

We have heard a lot about both teams’ defenses and both teams’ quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger just finds a way to win big games, even though he’s rarely mentioned on the same level as Brady, Manning, and Brees. And Aaron Rodgers, who is sometimes mentioned on the same level as those guys, would be the first QB taken by many if they were starting a brand new team today.

I don’t think this game will end up as high-scoring as their 2009 instant classic (37-36 Steelers on the last play of the game), but I think both teams get into the 20s. The Steelers are a very balanced team, where they can run and throw the ball down the field. It’s a great recipe for success in a game of this magnitude and might be enough to keep the Packers defense off-balance.

The Packers offense isn’t as balanced, even though their running game showed up a little bit in the playoffs. It’ll be hard-going against the Pitt front 7, however, so I think the Packers come out passing four out of every five downs. By spreading the Steelers talented defensive players out, Rodgers can try to find the one matchup to exploit on each play, which he is one of the best at doing.

Can Rodgers do it enough though, especially with an improved, but still somewhat unreliable, offensive line in front of him. The Bears hit Rodgers a lot after the opening drive of their game (he even got crushed on his TD run), and he was nowhere near as effective.

Pittsburgh is one of the hardest hitting teams in the league, so if they can get to Rodgers early – say, three times in the first quarter – I like Pitt’s chances. Rodgers will get happy feet, won’t progress through his reads as well as he can, and Green Bay won’t pick up huge chunks of yardage we all know they can get.

The Steelers move more methodically down the field, even though they have big play receivers in Mike Wallace, and even Hines Ward on his aging legs. And with Clay Matthews breathing down his neck, Big Ben won’t be able to sit back in the pocket and find his guys. But he’s one of the best QBs after the pocket has collapsed. He makes play after play moving his feet, since he is so big and hard to bring down. His receivers know to keep moving if they are initially covered, and if they find open space, Ben will find them.

Last year, I was convinced before the playoffs started that the winner of the NFC would win the Super Bowl, and the Saints did. This year, I was convinced the winner of the AFC would win the Super Bowl. I really dislike that Green Bay is playing so well the last five games, when they have had to win each one or have their season over.

Not this time. The Steelers win Super Bowl XLV mostly due to their talent on both sides of the ball, and because they have been there before. As I said, Big Ben finds ways to win the big games.

Also, I won’t stand for watching the team I root against the most hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. It’s petty, but I don’t care. Green Bay can not win this game. So they won’t. Go Vikings.

Steelers win 27-23.

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler got pummeled during and in the 24 hours after the NFC Championship game on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, because he didn’t finish the game due to injury. We all know how it played out: Cutler was horrible in the first half, showed bad body language, which isn’t new, played one series of the second half, then showed more bad body language on the sideline the rest of the game.

Even before the third quarter was over, Cutler was getting blasted on Twitter by fans and former and current players. The Bears rallied, but couldn’t complete the comeback after the final interception inside the Packers red zone, losing 14-21.

During the game, I didn’t call out Cutler for quitting on his team. I went after his body language, questioned his reputation for being a “tough” quarterback (regardless of the injury), and agreed with others who said that Cutler and Brett Favre showed an interesting contrast in playing with pain in a game to go to the Super Bowl. When one person wrote this, I hedged my agreement by saying, “Depends on [his] injury, but yes.”

I think that the people who found it so easy to blast him during the game didn’t think the whole scenario through and may have forgotten that he played in the second half after the injury occurred. Until reports surfaced on Monday that Cutler sprained his MCL, he had been labeled “Jay Quit-ler.”

It’s the NFL, an unbelievably important game, and Cutler was the best chance on offense for the Bears to come back, despite his performance. He gave it a go, but couldn’t. Why do those who ripped him think he would just give up so easy? It is because he hasn’t earned respect or the benefit of the doubt from his peers or the media, so it was easy for people to rush to judgement without any facts.

Since his knee was hurt in the first half, I have to believe that Cutler spent time with the Bears’ medical team in the locker room at halftime and probably did some tests to see how sturdy the knee was. My guess is that it didn’t respond how he and they hoped, but they decided to give it a try, since, you know, they were playing to go to the Super Bowl. The Bears went three-and-out to begin the second half, with Cutler attempting one pass on third down, and his day was done.

I am more troubled by how the Bears organization handled this than how Cutler handled himself. After the game, he, along with Head Coach Lovie Smith, talked about speaking with the medical staff and decided he shouldn’t continue to play. But their explanation stopped there. Bears players, including leader Brian Urlacher, were left to vehemently defend Cutler to the media.

No one bought it. And didn’t for 24 hours, which is a lifetime when there are 24/7 sports maniacs like ESPN, Yahoo, CBSsports, SI.com, etc. After a game of that significance, the Bears needed to come out with something more definitive to take the pressure off Cutler as soon as possible, if for no other reason than to keep us from hearing that people are also questioning his decision to go to dinner after the game with family and friends.

If the game on Sunday was a regular season game, I have my doubts that Cutler would have returned for that first series of the second half. I think the Bears’ medical team, trainers and coaches would have had him in the locker room for further tests (it was a knee injury, after all), and I think the only reason he stayed on the sideline was to support his teammates, which he did a poor job of doing, based on television camera views.

I think I would have acted differently, if I was in his place, but how do I know? He had to be dejected with what was going on in the game and his performance. It’s not like he could have bounced around slapping guys on the shoulder pads with the injured knee – that would have been even worse.

He probably should have shown he was more involved on the sidelines during the game. He didn’t, but people should get over it. I guarantee that PR people for athletes in every sport are using this as a lesson for their clients, telling them that they are always on. Even if they aren’t on the field or court of play, they are on, and people are watching. Which I think is one of the reasons so many who ripped Cutler have started to backpedal from their criticism.

As we found out, when people are watching, they are reacting and commenting for the world to read and see. It’s Twitter’s world, and, for better or worse, we’re all just watching our timeline’s in it.

By now, you may have read or heard of John Stone, the Chicago-area car salesman who was fired the Monday after the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears to advance to the 2011 Super Bowl. If not, you might be asking yourself if he was so mad at the Bears loss that he set a car on fire or punched a gloating Packers fan looking to buy a new ride to drive to Dallas for the game next week. No and no.

Turns out, John Stone is the Packers fan, and he didn’t set anything on fire in celebration or do much gloating at all. He did, however, have the audacity to wear a Packers tie to work on Monday, which was too much for his boss, Jerry Roberts, to take, so Roberts fired Mr. Stone. Yes, fired him for wearing an article of clothing to work.

As a Minnesota Vikings fan, in addition to cheering for my favorite team to do well, I take equal sports enjoyment in hoping the Packers team suffers defeat each week so their insufferable, almost-to-the-point-of-intolerable fan base doesn’t have anything to hang their hat on either. I cheered for the Packers to lose the last five weeks, so those cheeseheads would have had to join us in analyzing what went wrong this year and how could the team make it better next year.

I should have no sympathy for this guy, John Stone, who lost his job, because he is a Packers fan. Usually, they’ve earned whatever negativity goes their way. However, since he was reportedly fired for nothing that had to do with his job performance, I do have sympathy for him and don’t think it was right. Even Packers fans have earned the right to celebrate their team’s success this NFL season.

If you read the story in the link provided above, nothing the boss says indicates that Mr. Stone violated company policy in wearing the Packers tie – didn’t break a dress code, didn’t have a conflict-of-interest clause in his contract, since his former dealership did business with the Bears, and didn’t do any irreparable damage to the business. He wore an article of clothing that the boss didn’t like, and now he’s out of a job (sure, it’s an ugly tie, as any Packers tie is bound to be, but that’s neither here-nor-there and, as reported, not a fireable offense).

I have managed employees where I enforced the organizational dress code. I remember two instances of sending an employee home to change into the proper work attire and many other instances where I had to give employees the proper organization-issued shirt to wear. There was discipline involved – some, because it was a pattern of behavior that warranted further discussion – but the violation alone didn’t rise to the level of dismissal.

And for that, Jerry Roberts, you earn yourself a “Come on, man!”

As a Minnesota Vikings fan, the NFC Championship game puts the final nail in the coffin of the Vikings 2010 season. I have to watch…well, don’t have to, but probably will…the Green Bay Packers travel to Soldier Field to play the Chicago Bears for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

I dislike both teams, so seeing either have success is terrible, but knowing one and their fan base will be insanely happy at the end of the day is almost too much to bear. But bear it I will, but it will only be tolerable if the Bears come out victorious. See, I dislike the Packers many times more than the Bears, so watching them suffer defeat will provide just a little bit of consolation.

It is no consolation for what we endured this year watching the Vikings. A year after playing in this very game, and feeling very confident they would win in New Orleans, we are stuck watching our rivals, knowing how far away the Vikings were to getting back for another chance with basically the same team. But they couldn’t get out of their own way right from the beginning.

A list for you: Favre being Favre in the off-season (when I thought he was going to declare coming back by the 2010 NFL draft), Sidney Rice’s injury and poor decision-making on timing of the surgery, Cedric Griffin had another knee injury, Percy’s migraines and extended training camp absence after the death in his family, Head Coach Brad Childress fired, and Favre’s consecutive games played streak ends due to injury. And that’s before we even bring up their play on the field.

I argued all season with Childress haters that the play on the field, and, therefore, the Vikings players, was the reason the team finished so poorly. Missed throws by the QB, missed open holes by the RB (AP was awesome, but missed two TDs at the goal line in losses this year), dropped passes by WRs, dropped INTs by the defense, defensive line disappearance in September and October, and finally, too many times allowing the opponent to convert a first down on third and long.

The job of all coaches is to put their players in position to make plays, which, in turn, will usually lead to wins. The Vikings players were in more than enough positions to make plays, but failed. In 2009, they made those plays and ended with 12 wins and were within one play of the Super Bowl. In 2010, they just didn’t make the plays, which led to loss after loss, and eventually, at 3-7, the coach getting fired (had to be done only to rid the team of the public relations nightmare it had turned into).

Favre wasn’t the same as 2009, when he was awesome and exceeded everyone’s expectations. He missed open receivers, couldn’t move around, was out of shape, and looked…old. The Vikings defense could not get off the field and give the offense a short field to work with early in the season, especially in the two road losses to the Patriots and Jets. They needed a stop in the 4th quarter after the offense scored to make it close, but in both games, the opponent held the ball to end the game.

Those quarters were the season. The Vikings failed, so the season failed. Which is too bad, because Adrian Peterson would have been in the MVP conversation had the team been winning. His season is overlooked, but he was running lights out early on. The offensive line struggled, but AP, stung by the criticism of 2009, ran like a beast.

He fought for yards, and most importantly, hung onto the ball – only one fumble in 2010, which happened in week 15 versus the Bears. He did miss those open holes on the goal line, which was disappointing, but he, along with Percy when he was healthy, were two bright spots on an otherwise underwhelming and underperforming team.

Which brings us back to the 2010 NFC Championship Game between the Packers and Bears. The Packers, despite also underwhelming for most of the year, turned it around at the right time (although only winning 10-3 in the final week over the Bears is still embarrassing). Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level, and the defense is giving up very little. Why it took so long is probably due to injuries, but their season didn’t seem to be as good as it is finishing. Whatever…good for them.

The Bears, on the other hand, just wouldn’t go away when everyone expected them to at some point. I made more than one comment in September to Bears fans that they need to enjoy 1st place, while they can, as it wouldn’t last long. Well, I was wrong. Their old defense kept playing well, and the offense, for the most part really bad, did enough to win ugly games.

They’re just an ugly team, with a QB who doesn’t show any enjoyment for playing his sport, but like the Packers, the team’s finish is better than their season seemed to be (I do count their opening game versus the Lions as a loss, but since they were given that one after the Calvin Johnson ruling in the end zone, we should have known they were possibly going to have a winning season).

I guess I hope the Bears win the game and advance to the Super Bowl. I don’t want the Packers to even have a chance to win the Super Bowl. So the Bears must win.

However, I predict a Green Bay victory in Chicago (puking now). They won’t run it up like they did against the Falcons in the climate-controlled atmosphere of the Georgia Dome, but they’ll win by at least a touchdown. The weather will be brutal, and shouldn’t favor either team. I’m taking the Packers, because I can’t predict the Bears will win after not believing in them at all this year.

No matter who wins, however, they need to get destroyed by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl. I do not want to listen to Rex Ryan for two weeks and do not think the Jets are that good, either (like the Bears). Watching Roethlisberger for the Steelers in the Super Bowl after the off-season he had last spring and summer isn’t great either, but I like Mike Tomlin, and since I’m a homer, I want to see the former Vikings coach win his second Super Bowl.

Since I can’t root for purple and gold, I’ll settle for black and yellow. Pass me a Terrible Towel, please.

I don’t like watching the Vikings lose any game, so watching them lose to the Packers Sunday night, when the game was definitely winnable, was especially difficult. As in their previous three losses, they were one-to-two plays away from winning the game by 10 or more. Alas, they’re now 2-4, staring at a promising season slowly going south.

Fans will rip Brett Favre for the interceptions in the 2nd half, which weren’t pretty, but I see that he and Randy Moss still aren’t clicking through almost four weeks of being together. It looks like Moss isn’t quite clear, yet, on where he’s supposed to be, and the timing on their routes, when Favre looks to his side, is off.

Usually, with Moss, the team would want to take two or three shots down the field with him. The only one I remember, outside of the two on the last drive where they were just a couple jump balls that went out of bounds, was the pass interference at the end of the first half. Otherwise, no fades, no quick slants or any other quick hitters to try to get him into open space.

On the flip side, Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson have been electric the last couple weeks. They are a great duo and two weapons I am convinced the Vikings will utilize more in the coming weeks. They can get into open space and not many defenders will bring them down on first contact. These guys are the real deal, and the Vikings offense needs to continue to revolve around them to try to turn the Vikings season around.

It was good to see Favre get Visanthe Shiancoe more involved in the game, as well. He caught a couple big passes in the first half to keep drives alive. And no one will convince me that his catch in the end zone was not a touchdown. He had possession throughout the catch, and it doesn’t matter that the tip of the ball hit the ground in the “process” of the catch. He didn’t mishandle the football at all, and the refs missed one there, costing the Vikings four points.

The refs actually missed four end zone calls, correcting two with replay (Harvin on the sideline and in the back of the end zone), missing the Shiancoe catch after replay and giving the Packers tight end the touchdown early in the game when replay would have overturned it. Vikings coaches missed throwing the challenge flag on that, but the Packers were given seven points.

I loved hearing Coach Childress with fire in his voice after the game in the press conference and in the locker room talking with Greg Coleman on KFAN-AM 1130. He knew how important the game was, saw his players throw it away, not make one more play, and not getting any favors from the guys in stripes, which shouldn’t be expected on the road at Lambeau. But we at least expect them to get the easy calls correct, whether it’s right in front of them or upon review.

The two penalties when the Vikings had 1st and 10 at the Packers 15 with about a minute left in the 4th quarter were killer. They were moving the ball, and they had so many options – I was convinced Percy was getting his third touchdown of the game. Alas, Favre’s pass to him in the back of the end zone was just a few inches out, and I think he just missed Moss on 4th down. Part of me thinks Moss had alligator arms on it, and if he would have (could have??) extended more, he catches it. I will have to watch it again, but a little more effort might have made the difference.

A little more effort in a few areas would have made the difference, actually. The defense played pretty well after the first quarter, but they didn’t sack Aaron Rodgers once. He heard some footsteps, leading to some really bad throws that were not close to his receivers. It would have been nice to see one of the Vikings’ defensive backs run the other way with it. Jared Allen made the nice pick early, but disappeared again.

The Packers showed nothing that convinces me they will make a run as the season progresses and in the playoffs. As a Vikings fan, this gives me hope, even with the 2-4 record. They have three road losses (Saints, Jets & now Packers), and have made each of those Super Bowl-hopeful teams look pretty pedestrian. The NFC is down with no team wanting to take control.

And the Vikings don’t have the same magic they had last year. They win each of these three games last year, and I guess they win Sunday night if the Packers touchdown is overturned and Shiancoe gets his. That’s a ten-point swing, and when Favre is making one-to-two decisions each game that go the other way, it’s too much to overcome.

If they are 2-5 after next week’s game at New England, the season is about over. Sure, the Vikings could win seven of eight in the second half of the season versus the teams on the schedule, and they will need to in order to make the playoffs. I thought they’d win 10 or 11 and win the NFC North, but at this point, I’ll take 9-7, sneak into the playoffs, and go from there.

The team is talented, so they just need to win some of these close games, instead of being on the wrong end and needing one more play. Hopefully it starts on Halloween in New England.

I am going against my better judgement and picking the Vikings to win at Lambeau Field tonight in Brett Favre’s second visit back to Green Bay. The Vikings have not played a complete game yet in the 2010 NFL season, have a record of 2-3, and need a victory tonight to keep pace in what is turning out to be a very mediocre NFC.

If the Vikings win, they’ll even their record at .500, will be a half-game ahead of the Packers, and will only be a half-game behind the Bears for first place in the NFC North. The Bears are dropping back, record-wise, to where I thought they would be. There were not a good 3-0 team in September. And the Packers should probably be in a position where even a loss to the Vikings at home wouldn’t matter much. But it would. A lot.

The Packers, along with the Saints, have to be the most disappointing team in the NFC. They have tried to overcome some very important injuries, especially on defense, but have not had much success. They, like the Vikings, lost at home to the Dolphins, and their three losses have been by a combined nine points. The defense has held up pretty well, but the Packers’ offense, picked to be one of the best coming into the season, hasn’t looked the part. They have no running game behind a less-than-decent offensive line, which is important against the Vikings, as the purple should be able to consistently drop six or more defenders into coverage. I don’t think this is the night for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers receivers to turn their season around.

The Vikings have probably been even worse offensively than the Packers. Adrian Peterson has been running strong through the first one-third of the season and has been hanging onto the ball, which is what everyone wished him to do. He’s making defenders miss and is breaking tackles. After only scoring nine points in each of their opening two losses, the Vikings have scored 20+ in their last three games, going 2-1.

The Packers get linebacker Clay Matthews back on the field, but I doubt he’s 100% after sitting out last week with a hamstring injury. Brett Favre, Randy Moss, and the rest of the Vikings passing game had another week to get in sync, so I expect them to be better tonight. Percy Harvin is just as explosive as last year and Visanthe Shiancoe should find some seams after disappearing the last couple games. The Packers’ secondary is still without two starters, and they haven’t faced an offensive unit as capable as the Vikings.

The Packers are at home, Favre has to overcome his slow start and off-the-field distractions, and the Vikings offensive line has to give some better protection, but I think the purple come out with a victory. They have the most upside, the most to prove, and cannot fall any further back in the NFC. It could be ugly, especially if Favre doesn’t play as well as he did last year against his former team, but the Vikings will get it done.

Vikings 24
Packers 20

Skol.

I have to admit that until recently, I didn’t have a great feeling about the Vikings chances in their Monday night game at the Jets tonight. They have not done many great things offensively in the first few weeks of the young NFL season to show that they can go into the Meadowlands and beat a very good Jets team with a very good defense.

Their embattled quarterback, Brett Favre, has not clicked with his receivers like he did in 2009, which can happen when a team loses its number one option, like Sidney Rice. No other wide receiver has stepped up, made consistent separation with the defensive back, and showed that he could carry the position for a few weeks. Bernard Berrian should have been this guy, but he has not proved up to the task through three games.

This all changed last week with the arrival of receiver Randy Moss from the Patriots. The Vikings, again, have a number one receiver that Favre can rely on throughout the game. Moss is a receiver that a defense has to pay close attention to and, on most plays, devote two-to-three guys to his side of the field. Even more importantly, it should open up lanes for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings very good running game.

Vikings QB Brett Favre

AP has been running very well so far through three weeks, running as though he knew the offense was a little off while not at full strength. I thought the Vikings went away from the run in the 2nd half of the Saints game in week one, but their commitment in weeks two and three proved that the line and Peterson are up to the task in carrying the offense. The Jets defense is stout, meaning the Vikings passing game has to be a factor tonight, so Favre, Moss, Harvin, Shiancoe, etc. have to be on the same page in order for the Vikings offense to stay on the field, put some nice drives together, and score touchdowns, not field goals.

But are four practices and some classroom time enough to make the difference and turn the season around against a Jets team who has Super Bowl visions once again. Favre and Moss are hall of fame players who have been around, played in some big games, and been on teams where they needed to get to know new teammates pretty quickly. But never have they needed to become one in less than a week. They will.

It’s Monday night, and we know that both Favre and Moss have had some of their biggest moments of their careers in primetime on Monday Night Football. They are both under pressure for different reasons this week, so they’ll need all their focus to be in the right place, in the game, blocking out the viciousness the Jets’ fans are sure to bring, in order for the Vikings to come out on top and improve their record to 2-2.

The Jets are playing very well. However, when they traveled to Miami a couple weeks ago, the Dolphins, not known for their offensive prowess, moved the ball up and down the field against the Jets’ defense. Chad Henne threw for 364 yards and two touchdowns, and the Dolphins controlled the ball for most of the game. The Jets ended up winning, due to a great performance from their quarterback Mark Sanchez and an interception in their red zone with under a minute left to seal the game. But they weren’t an unstoppable force, like they have been at times the last year or so.

If the Jets play defense like they did in Miami, the Vikings will score more than 23 points and win this game. On the other side, the Vikings defense has played very well, too, holding the Saints, Dolphins and Lions to 14, 14, and 10 points respectively (really, the defense has only given up three touchdowns, as the Vikings offense has two turnovers inside their five yard line, giving their oppponets 14 points).

The Jets can take control of a tough AFC East with a win, but this game means more to the Vikings. Expected top teams in the NFC have fallen (Saints, Cowboys & Packers), so a Vikings’ win puts them back in the NFC North race and keeps them in a decent place in the NFC. It won’t be easy, but I think the Vikings will win.

Vikings 27, Jets 23.

***********

This prediction totally goes against what I’ve been telling people the last few days. I know as recently as Saturday, I picked the Jets 23-20. But I need the Vikings to win, otherwise I need to change my Twitter avatar to a very bearded Braylan Edwards. If the Vikings can somehow win, however, my Twitter friend, @TheFirstD, has to change his avatar to a very bearded Randy Moss.

Skol!

Well…are you ready for some football? I am, and I think the NFL got it right in sending the Vikings back to face the Saints to begin the 2010 season.

The Vikings and Saints played, in my mind, the Super Bowl game last year. I felt that whoever won that game would win the Lombardi trophy, which the Saints did by beating the Colts two weeks later. I was very confident the Vikings would win that game. I’m not as confident this year.

A week ago, I would have said that the Saints are going to beat the Vkings by 14 or more points tonight. The Saints have the emotion of opening up the season at home, are raising their championship banners, and Drew Brees leading an offense that led the NFL in scoring last year returning pretty much intact.

The Vikings, on the other hand, have had a training camp and preseason full of many more questions than answers. Will Brett Favre return (I never doubted it, but it took longer than I thought it would)? Will Sidney Rice’s hip and Percy Harvin’s migraines heal? Will Sage beat out TJack for the #2 quarterback position? Who will start at cornerback opposite Antoine Winfield? And how will the defensive secondary play without Cedric Griffin? And how will Adrian Peterson respond this year after his fumbles came in such crucial situations?

We will not know the answers to many of these until after the game (or first three games going into the bye week). We know Favre and Percy did return. We know Sage was traded last week, so TJack is the #2 QB, despite probably not earning it. We know the defensive secondary could get lit up and that veteran Lito Sheppard probably starts.

How does this translate on the football field, though? Unfortunately, the Vikings don’t have Cleveland and Detroit to ease Favre into the season again. He didn’t have to do much of anything in those two games, as the running game dominated, and Favre just had to make a couple easy plays. But with a bum ankle, he only played about two-and-a-half quarters of preseason football, plus a month of practices, to prepare to face the Super Bowl champs on their home field.

The Superdome will be rocking, and the Saints will come out with a ton of emotion. So will the Vikings. Besides Griffin being out, the Vikings defense is the same, and they had the Saints flummoxed for much of the NFC Championship. Saints gained less than 300 yards of offense and had to be helped out by a couple suspect defensive penalties on the Vikings in order to get in field goal range in overtime.

The Vikings offense obviously won’t be as polished as they were at the end of the last season, but Rice is the only man missing, and he was held to four catches. The Vikings will move Harvin into Rice’s spot (and move him around), with the new guy, Greg Camarillo, sliding into the slot. And don’t forget Shiancoe at tight end. The Vikings passing game is nearly the same. But with the limited game conditions in preseason, we’ll see how sharp they are.

Which is why the only way the Vikings beat the Saints is for Peterson to have a game like he did in the NFC Championship, minus the fumbles, of course. He ran for over 120 yards, including a nice 20+ yarder to open the scoring in the first quarter. The Vikings offensive line is intact, since John Sullivan is returning from a calf injury that limited him all preseason.

This game ends in one of two ways: either the Saints win in the blowout many expect or the Vikings win another close one. The Vikings offensive line will play well enough to control the clock, get AP over 100 yards again, and Favre won’t make the same mistake he did to end regulation last season. The Vikings are out to avenge how last season ended. They lost a game they definitely should have won after statistically dominating in almost all phases. And they are hungry.

Vikings win 27-20.

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints play in Super Bowl XLIV (44) on Sunday and vie for the best team in the NFL for the 2009-2010 season. I think I am sufficiently over the Saints beating the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game, so I believe I am seeing the final game clearly enough to be confident in picking the winner.

The Saints will win the Super Bowl and be NFL champions. I have held the belief since November that the winner of the NFC would be the Super Bowl winner.

The Saints and Vikings were the class of the NFC and playing really good football, combining to post a record of 21-1 at one point. The Packers and Cowboys played better football over the last month, showing that they might have enough to compete in the playoffs, but they both flamed out eventually.

The Saints survived an epic game against the Vikings, and I think they have the players on both sides of the ball and on special teams to take down the Colts. Led by Drew Brees, the high scoring Saints will be able to put plenty of points on the board, as the Colts have not played an explosive offense like this in well over a month.

The Colts finished the season on cruise control, resting their starters for most of the last two games when they had the #1 seed wrapped up. They then played the Ravens and Jets in their first two playoff games, two teams who like to grind it out and take their shots downfield if the chance presents itself.

The Saints will go downfield first and look to dump it off as a last resort. And they have Reggie Bush, who plays up and down, but is still explosive, as their dump off back. He just needs a small hole to make a big play.

I do not expect the Saints offense to struggle this game, like they did against the Vikings. With two weeks to prepare, they should move the ball. We saw what they did against the Cardinals with two weeks off. Oh, and the Colts defense will have a gimpy Dwight Freeney on the line, which gives Brees a nice advantage.

If the Colts are going to win, though, it falls on the right shoulder of a pretty great quarterback. Peyton Manning has cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks of this generation, and some are arguing whether another Super Bowl victory pushes him into the discussion of Greatest if All Time (G.O.A.T.).

I think that discussion is for a few years down the road, but a Colts victory lies squarely with Manning. He is a master at the line of scrimmage reading where the defense will line up, getting his guys in position, and throwing a quick strike to move the ball downfield. He doesn’t have much of a running game to support him, and the Colts don’t change their scheme much, so he needs to be precise in his reads for it all to click.

Despite their 14-2 regular season record and methodical wins in their two playoff games (Manning was a surgeon in the last three quarters against the Jets), I can’t help but think that the Colts were good enough to win a weaker AFC, but have yet to play a team as good as the Saints (or Vikings, if they had made it). The Saints will get after Manning just enough to rattle him early.

With Manning trying to figure out the Saints defense, their offense will jump out to a lead, maybe by 10-14 points in the first half. The Colts, since they have Manning, will pull within one score in the second half, and perhaps hold a slim lead, but the Saints will finish strong, building a ten-point lead as tje clock winds down.

The Colts will score late to make it close, but the Saints will hold on for a 34-31 victory, winning their first Super Bowl title in their first try. It will be great for the players and the state of Louisiana.

I won’t go as far as some and say that New Orleans deserves the Super Bowl, but with their high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, the Saints will have definitely earned it. They have played the best this year and will prove it by holding up the Lombardi Trophy.

Sports fans of Minnesota teams just finished one of the most exciting six-month stretches in recent memory. The two favorite teams in the state were relevant and played meaningful games late in their season. Between the Minnesota Twins and Minnesota Vikings, we were treated to some great action on and off the field by both teams. The Twins made a late-summer, early-fall run in the Central Division, the Vikings signed Brett Favre, the Twins played a first round playoff series against the New York Yankees, and the Vikings played like a Super Bowl contender for most of their season. Overall, there were great moments, and fans had every reason to be engaged and optimistic for their teams from mid-August 2009 to late-January 2010.

August 18, 2009, began with the Twins six games under .500, playing in Texas against the Rangers who were 17 games over .500. That night, Joe Mauer hit two homeruns in a 9-6 come-from-behind Twins win. Oh, and earlier in the day, the Vikings officially signed Brett Favre, turning them into an immediate Super Bowl contender and media obsession. August, September, and October put Minnesota in the middle of the sports world, as the MLB season came to a close and the NFL season started to heat up.

The Twins win against the Rangers was the beginning of a great stretch of baseball to end the season, where they won 31 of their last 45 games. They survived losing Justin Morneau and being three games out of first place with four games left to finish tied with the Detroit Tigers atop the Central Division. This set up a one-game playoff at Metrodome, which would close to professional baseball when the Twins season ended. Game 163, on a Tuesday night, achieved instant classic status, as it lasted 12 epic innings. The Twins won on a single by Alexi Casilla in the bottom of the 12th that scored Carlos Gomez, who slid head-first at home plate and leapt high into the air, expressing the joy 55,000 screaming fans shared.

The noise from the Twins-Tigers game was just a carryover for what had happened the previous night in the same building. Brett Favre led an undefeated Vikings team on Monday Night Football against his former team, the Green Bay Packers. Favre had joined the Vikings and immediately made them his team, leading them to two road victories against inferior teams and two hard-fought home victories, including the dramatic game-winning touchdown with :02 left against the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota fans collectively settled in for the fall, believing in the team and Favre, all building up to his first appearance against the Packers.

The build-up was huge, but even more so since it was Monday Night Football on ESPN (as though they needed an extra reason to pump up Favre wearing purple). The Twin Cities were electric, since the football game was the first of two huge games in consecutive nights in Metrodome. As you know, Favre performed well, leading the Vikings to a 30-23 victory. In the two games against the Packers, he finished with seven touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and two victories, which proved to be huge in leading the Vikings to the NFC North Division title and earning the first round bye in the playoffs. There was a lot of optimism for a nice Super Bowl run for the Vikings, which was not matched when the Twins met the Yankees in the fall.

The Twins did not fare that well against the Yankees, getting swept out of the playoffs. At least they gave us some exciting moments. They scored first in the series opener, only to see the Yankees score the final seven runs, losing 2-7. Game 2 was the one that really hurt, as the Twins had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning. Joe Nathan, Minnesota’s great closer, gave up a leadoff single to Mark Texiera, before facing Alex Rodriguez. On cue, in new Yankee Stadium, Rodriguez tied the game with a two-run blast to right center. The Twins had a chance to take the lead in extra innings, but could not score with the based loaded and nobody out in the top of the 11th. The Yankees then won it in the bottom of the inning. Down two games to zero in the series, the Twins returned to Metrodome for one last game, but fell 1-4, ending their season much later than anyone thought on that day in mid-August when the beat the Rangers. They played great baseball down the stretch and now move to their new home at Target Field. MLB returns to the outdoors in Minneapolis. But not before the Vikings had the whole state buzzing.

The Vikings went 10-1 in their first 11 games before stumbling late in the season. They lost three of their final five games, all on the road. Their last lost was against the Bears in Chicago, when they still had homefield advantage in the playoffs on their radar. They got down 0-16 at halftime, but beginning with the second half of that game, the Vikings played perhaps their best stretch of football of the season. They scored 30 points in the second half, before falling in overtime, ending their bid at homefield.

The final week of the season, they rolled over a New York Giants team who had mailed in their season, since they had nothing for which to play. However, the Vikings still put 44 points on the board, giving them some confidence heading into the playoffs, where they had a first round bye. Fans were excited and looked at the long shot possibility of hosting the Packers in the game to go to the Super Bowl. We watched as the Packers lost a thriller in Arizone, and we moved on. The Vikings second round opponent was the Dallas Cowboys, whom many had jumped on as possible NFC favorites, since they had played pretty consistent football down the stretch.

The Vikings thoroughly outplayed the Cowboys in all phases of the game, winning 34-3, putting them in the NFC Championship game in New Orleans. We were very confident the Vikings could go to the Big Easy and win the game, and you could see purple on Bourbon Street for days in advance of the game.

The Vikings and Saints played a great game, another instant classic involving a Minnesota team. The Vikings could not close it out, losing in overtime after having a great chance to win the game with a field goal in regulation. They proved they were a really nice team, moving the ball against the Saints all game, stopping the Saints’ potent offense, and put themselves in position to advance to the Super Bowl. In the end, turnovers by Favre, Peterson, and the receivers were too much to overcome. After a great season, the Vikings ended their playoff run with a “Stomach Punch” loss – and the fans might still be feeling it.

The last six months have been very exciting for Minnesota sports. I put it on par with a stretch in 1991-1992, when the Twins won the World Series, Minneapolis hosted the Super Bowl and the Final Four, and the Minnesota North Stars made it to the Stanley Cup (they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins). I was only 13-14 years old at the time, but I remember it as an unbelievable time to live here. The Twins and Vikings provided memories for fans young and old with timely plays, clutch performances, exciting finishes, and playoff baseball and football. For those two days in early October 2009, Minneapolis was the center of the sporting world, and those of us cheering for Minnesota wins were rewarded with great performances.

The teams couldn’t “get the money” in the end, but no one will say it wasn’t worth the ride. With an impending contract extension for Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano throwing darts in Winter League, and pitchers and catchers reporting for the Twins in a few weeks, we’re about to start all over again. Many Vikings’ fans are hoping Brett Favre will announce he will return for one more season, as the pieces are mostly still in place for another run to the Super Bowl next year.

As great as this time has been, we’re ready to look forward. I think there are good things to come in 2010 for Minnesota sports fans. The Twins and Vikings will be the teams that provide the excitement.