matt weighs in

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints play in Super Bowl XLIV (44) on Sunday and vie for the best team in the NFL for the 2009-2010 season. I think I am sufficiently over the Saints beating the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship game, so I believe I am seeing the final game clearly enough to be confident in picking the winner.

The Saints will win the Super Bowl and be NFL champions. I have held the belief since November that the winner of the NFC would be the Super Bowl winner.

The Saints and Vikings were the class of the NFC and playing really good football, combining to post a record of 21-1 at one point. The Packers and Cowboys played better football over the last month, showing that they might have enough to compete in the playoffs, but they both flamed out eventually.

The Saints survived an epic game against the Vikings, and I think they have the players on both sides of the ball and on special teams to take down the Colts. Led by Drew Brees, the high scoring Saints will be able to put plenty of points on the board, as the Colts have not played an explosive offense like this in well over a month.

The Colts finished the season on cruise control, resting their starters for most of the last two games when they had the #1 seed wrapped up. They then played the Ravens and Jets in their first two playoff games, two teams who like to grind it out and take their shots downfield if the chance presents itself.

The Saints will go downfield first and look to dump it off as a last resort. And they have Reggie Bush, who plays up and down, but is still explosive, as their dump off back. He just needs a small hole to make a big play.

I do not expect the Saints offense to struggle this game, like they did against the Vikings. With two weeks to prepare, they should move the ball. We saw what they did against the Cardinals with two weeks off. Oh, and the Colts defense will have a gimpy Dwight Freeney on the line, which gives Brees a nice advantage.

If the Colts are going to win, though, it falls on the right shoulder of a pretty great quarterback. Peyton Manning has cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks of this generation, and some are arguing whether another Super Bowl victory pushes him into the discussion of Greatest if All Time (G.O.A.T.).

I think that discussion is for a few years down the road, but a Colts victory lies squarely with Manning. He is a master at the line of scrimmage reading where the defense will line up, getting his guys in position, and throwing a quick strike to move the ball downfield. He doesn’t have much of a running game to support him, and the Colts don’t change their scheme much, so he needs to be precise in his reads for it all to click.

Despite their 14-2 regular season record and methodical wins in their two playoff games (Manning was a surgeon in the last three quarters against the Jets), I can’t help but think that the Colts were good enough to win a weaker AFC, but have yet to play a team as good as the Saints (or Vikings, if they had made it). The Saints will get after Manning just enough to rattle him early.

With Manning trying to figure out the Saints defense, their offense will jump out to a lead, maybe by 10-14 points in the first half. The Colts, since they have Manning, will pull within one score in the second half, and perhaps hold a slim lead, but the Saints will finish strong, building a ten-point lead as tje clock winds down.

The Colts will score late to make it close, but the Saints will hold on for a 34-31 victory, winning their first Super Bowl title in their first try. It will be great for the players and the state of Louisiana.

I won’t go as far as some and say that New Orleans deserves the Super Bowl, but with their high-powered offense and opportunistic defense, the Saints will have definitely earned it. They have played the best this year and will prove it by holding up the Lombardi Trophy.

Sports fans of Minnesota teams just finished one of the most exciting six-month stretches in recent memory. The two favorite teams in the state were relevant and played meaningful games late in their season. Between the Minnesota Twins and Minnesota Vikings, we were treated to some great action on and off the field by both teams. The Twins made a late-summer, early-fall run in the Central Division, the Vikings signed Brett Favre, the Twins played a first round playoff series against the New York Yankees, and the Vikings played like a Super Bowl contender for most of their season. Overall, there were great moments, and fans had every reason to be engaged and optimistic for their teams from mid-August 2009 to late-January 2010.

August 18, 2009, began with the Twins six games under .500, playing in Texas against the Rangers who were 17 games over .500. That night, Joe Mauer hit two homeruns in a 9-6 come-from-behind Twins win. Oh, and earlier in the day, the Vikings officially signed Brett Favre, turning them into an immediate Super Bowl contender and media obsession. August, September, and October put Minnesota in the middle of the sports world, as the MLB season came to a close and the NFL season started to heat up.

The Twins win against the Rangers was the beginning of a great stretch of baseball to end the season, where they won 31 of their last 45 games. They survived losing Justin Morneau and being three games out of first place with four games left to finish tied with the Detroit Tigers atop the Central Division. This set up a one-game playoff at Metrodome, which would close to professional baseball when the Twins season ended. Game 163, on a Tuesday night, achieved instant classic status, as it lasted 12 epic innings. The Twins won on a single by Alexi Casilla in the bottom of the 12th that scored Carlos Gomez, who slid head-first at home plate and leapt high into the air, expressing the joy 55,000 screaming fans shared.

The noise from the Twins-Tigers game was just a carryover for what had happened the previous night in the same building. Brett Favre led an undefeated Vikings team on Monday Night Football against his former team, the Green Bay Packers. Favre had joined the Vikings and immediately made them his team, leading them to two road victories against inferior teams and two hard-fought home victories, including the dramatic game-winning touchdown with :02 left against the San Francisco 49ers. Minnesota fans collectively settled in for the fall, believing in the team and Favre, all building up to his first appearance against the Packers.

The build-up was huge, but even more so since it was Monday Night Football on ESPN (as though they needed an extra reason to pump up Favre wearing purple). The Twin Cities were electric, since the football game was the first of two huge games in consecutive nights in Metrodome. As you know, Favre performed well, leading the Vikings to a 30-23 victory. In the two games against the Packers, he finished with seven touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and two victories, which proved to be huge in leading the Vikings to the NFC North Division title and earning the first round bye in the playoffs. There was a lot of optimism for a nice Super Bowl run for the Vikings, which was not matched when the Twins met the Yankees in the fall.

The Twins did not fare that well against the Yankees, getting swept out of the playoffs. At least they gave us some exciting moments. They scored first in the series opener, only to see the Yankees score the final seven runs, losing 2-7. Game 2 was the one that really hurt, as the Twins had a 3-1 lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning. Joe Nathan, Minnesota’s great closer, gave up a leadoff single to Mark Texiera, before facing Alex Rodriguez. On cue, in new Yankee Stadium, Rodriguez tied the game with a two-run blast to right center. The Twins had a chance to take the lead in extra innings, but could not score with the based loaded and nobody out in the top of the 11th. The Yankees then won it in the bottom of the inning. Down two games to zero in the series, the Twins returned to Metrodome for one last game, but fell 1-4, ending their season much later than anyone thought on that day in mid-August when the beat the Rangers. They played great baseball down the stretch and now move to their new home at Target Field. MLB returns to the outdoors in Minneapolis. But not before the Vikings had the whole state buzzing.

The Vikings went 10-1 in their first 11 games before stumbling late in the season. They lost three of their final five games, all on the road. Their last lost was against the Bears in Chicago, when they still had homefield advantage in the playoffs on their radar. They got down 0-16 at halftime, but beginning with the second half of that game, the Vikings played perhaps their best stretch of football of the season. They scored 30 points in the second half, before falling in overtime, ending their bid at homefield.

The final week of the season, they rolled over a New York Giants team who had mailed in their season, since they had nothing for which to play. However, the Vikings still put 44 points on the board, giving them some confidence heading into the playoffs, where they had a first round bye. Fans were excited and looked at the long shot possibility of hosting the Packers in the game to go to the Super Bowl. We watched as the Packers lost a thriller in Arizone, and we moved on. The Vikings second round opponent was the Dallas Cowboys, whom many had jumped on as possible NFC favorites, since they had played pretty consistent football down the stretch.

The Vikings thoroughly outplayed the Cowboys in all phases of the game, winning 34-3, putting them in the NFC Championship game in New Orleans. We were very confident the Vikings could go to the Big Easy and win the game, and you could see purple on Bourbon Street for days in advance of the game.

The Vikings and Saints played a great game, another instant classic involving a Minnesota team. The Vikings could not close it out, losing in overtime after having a great chance to win the game with a field goal in regulation. They proved they were a really nice team, moving the ball against the Saints all game, stopping the Saints’ potent offense, and put themselves in position to advance to the Super Bowl. In the end, turnovers by Favre, Peterson, and the receivers were too much to overcome. After a great season, the Vikings ended their playoff run with a “Stomach Punch” loss – and the fans might still be feeling it.

The last six months have been very exciting for Minnesota sports. I put it on par with a stretch in 1991-1992, when the Twins won the World Series, Minneapolis hosted the Super Bowl and the Final Four, and the Minnesota North Stars made it to the Stanley Cup (they lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins). I was only 13-14 years old at the time, but I remember it as an unbelievable time to live here. The Twins and Vikings provided memories for fans young and old with timely plays, clutch performances, exciting finishes, and playoff baseball and football. For those two days in early October 2009, Minneapolis was the center of the sporting world, and those of us cheering for Minnesota wins were rewarded with great performances.

The teams couldn’t “get the money” in the end, but no one will say it wasn’t worth the ride. With an impending contract extension for Joe Mauer, Francisco Liriano throwing darts in Winter League, and pitchers and catchers reporting for the Twins in a few weeks, we’re about to start all over again. Many Vikings’ fans are hoping Brett Favre will announce he will return for one more season, as the pieces are mostly still in place for another run to the Super Bowl next year.

As great as this time has been, we’re ready to look forward. I think there are good things to come in 2010 for Minnesota sports fans. The Twins and Vikings will be the teams that provide the excitement.

Bill Simmons, ESPN.com’s resident Boston sports fan turned prominent national sports writer and podcaster, wrote a “Levels of Losing” column back in 2002, in which he attempted to properly put into context, with examples, the level to which many fans experience pain when their favorite teams lose a big game. It was the second place I referenced Sunday night, 135 minutes after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship game. The Vikings were one play and a made field goal at the end of regulation away from going to their first Super Bowl in 33 years. But then it happened, the Vikings lost the coin toss in overtime, didn’t touch the ball again, and limped into the off-season with questions of what could have been and what might be for next year.

(For those wondering, those immediate 135 minutes after the game were spent with my friends on Twitter, while listening to Vikings Fan Line on KFAN-AM 1130, which was one big cathartic group hug as we began to accept that there was no Super Bowl for the Vikings in two weeks).

Simmons’ Level II loss for a fan base is the “Stomach Punch” game, which as you can imagine, takes your breath away and leaves you gasping for air, and an explanation, as to what just occurred. He explains it like this:

Definition: Now we’ve moved into rarefied territory, any roller-coaster game that ends with A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play, or B) one of your guys failing in the clutch…usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all…always haunting, sometimes scarring…there are degrees to the Stomach Punch Game, depending on the situation…for instance…Cleveland’s Earnest Byner fumbling against Denver when he was about two yards and 0.2 seconds away from sending the Browns to the Super Bowl.

Yep. A stomach punch. Breathless. No words to explain. If Porter for the Saints would have ran the INT back for a touchdown, you would have combined the Stomach Punch game with Level III’s “The Guillotine” game and would have challenged his Level I game for losing, simply titled, “That Game.” At least it wasn’t That Game.

The Vikings seemed to have a really good game plan for the Saints, as most statistical categories show. They dominated in yards gained, first downs, time of possession, 3rd down conversion percentage, and plays ran. They forced the Saints to punt seven times. However, as you know, the Vikings lost the turnover battle, fumbling three times and, gulp, throwing two interceptions, while only falling on one Saints fumble.

Despite this, the Vikings were in a great position to win the game. They had the ball with just over a minute left in Saints territory and two timeouts. After two running plays gained no yards, the Vikings called timeout. We’ll skip over the 12 men on the field penalty, as that was just sophomoric, but I do want to talk about the play call.

If you watch the replay, you will see that the Vikings are in the exact same set after the penalty as they were when they were whistled for 12 men. The only difference is that the fullback, Tahi, is not on the field for 3rd and 15. The Vikings were going to pass and try to gain some more yards on this 3rd down play, there was just some confusion on what personnel package they were using. And I have no problem with calling the pass play on 3rd down. They rolled out to the right, had receivers at three different levels near the sideline, and the right decision should have been easy to make.

We’ll maybe never know why, but quarterback Brett Favre decided to throw it to the middle of the field to Sidney Rice, who was open for a second, but never should have been considered. We know he should have thrown it to Bernard Berrian on the sideline or ran a few yards, but he didn’t, and the interception happened. I can only think that Favre thought they needed more than a few yards to give Longwell a chance to win the game or he saw something pre-snap to make him think the middle of the field would be open with all the action moving to the right in front of him. He didn’t take into account that the Saints right corner, Porter, would be moving that way as well, putting him in perfect position to pick off the pass.

After making the right play all season, I still can not believe that Favre chose that moment to give so many people the satisfaction of saying, “I told you so.” I can not for the life of me believe he didn’t hit Berrian and give Longwell the chance to win it, which is what the Vikings were playing for after they got the first down at the Saints 33 and 1:06 remaining. If he throws it to Berrian, he catches it and goes out of bounds or is tackled between the 30 and 33 yard line, giving Longwell a very makeable 47-51 yard field goal attempt.

As much as that decision hurt the Vikings chances to win the hard-fought game, there were plenty of other missed opportunities that contributed to the game being tied and sent into overtime. I’m one to look at the body of a game as a whole and not think that one play is fully responsible for a win or loss. I try not to get caught up in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality when so much is at stake. After the interception, the Vikings still had overtime to win the game.

Below are the other factors in the game that kept the Vikings from blowing the Saints out of their own building in the biggest game of the season:

* Fumbled in huge spots: Adrian Peterson missed a handoff from Favre toward the end of the 1st half, costing the Vikings at least three points, and Bernard Berrian fumbled inside the 15-yard line with under ten minutes left in the 4th quarter, also costing them at least three points. Percy Harvin fumbled inside his own 15-yard line early in the 4th quarter, setting up a very short field for the Saints, and they scored a touchdown. (Quick word about AP’s fumbles: the Vikings recovered two of the three fumbles. Vikings scored a TD after his second fumble and Favre was picked off in the drive after AP busted his @ss to get ten yards downfield and beat three Saints to the ball on this third fumble. Let it be known that the refs missed a high-low illegal hit on Favre on his interception and the Vikings should have had first down at the Saints 19 after).

* Failed to capitalize on Saints mistakes: see AP’s fumble above, which happened after Reggie Bush fumbled a punt, giving the Vikings great field position and the chance to take the lead into the half. But also, the Saints fumbled two other times and recovered themselves. Drew Brees fumbled a snap deep in his own territory in the 4th quarter. It isn’t easy to pick up by the defensive line, but we have seen it happen. And Brees also fumbled deep in his own territory when he was sacked by Ray Edwards with just under five minutes left. If the Vikings get that last fumble by Brees, they take the lead by three or seven, forcing the Saints to drive to tie or win the game. The Vikings had forced the Saints to go three-and-out twice in the fourth quarter, so it was not going to be easy for the Saints to get the points.

* Failed to hang on to an interception in overtime: Oh what might have been. Tyrell Johnson had a tipped pass in his fingertips for an interception on the Saints final drive. Tipped balls are never easy to catch for defensive backs, as they are concentrating on making the hit on the receiver, but it looks like the ball hits pretty softly in his hands, and that it was definitely a play he should have made. The Vikings just needed to get one stop in overtime, and they were going to drive the field to win the game. Before the dropped INT, the Vikings had the Saints at 3rd and 10, before giving up a nine yard catch that was upheld on replay. Saints just barely converted on 4th and 1, and easily could have had the spot overturned on replay. Yep, what might have been.

People like to say that one team might have deserved to win a game over another, and many are saying this about the Saints. The Saints forced five Vikings turnovers, including two inside their own 20 yard line and an interception to prevent the Vikings from attempting a field goal to win the game. Others are saying that the Vikings deserved to win the game, because they dominated most of the statistical categories, as I stated above, and because they went into a very hostile environment and went toe-to-toe with the home team. I don’t look at it like one team deserved the win over the other.

In this game, which was pretty evenly matched (mostly because of turnovers, but that’s part of the game), I would say that the Saints survived to win the game. The Vikings moved the ball at will on offense and easily would have scored in the high-30s if not for the turnovers. And the VIkings defense forced seven punts, forced three fumbles themselves, but just could not make one more big play that would have helped out the offense. The Vikings would have survived their turnovers and missed opportunities, if they had won that game.

Alas, we are left to pick up the pieces of another year of being thisclose to seeing the Vikings in a Super Bowl. It was one heck of an exciting game to watch, and as much as I was left wondering why I was left gasping for breath when it was over, I couldn’t deny that I had been entertained.

At the beginning of the year, and before the playoffs started, I was telling people that getting to the NFC Championship game would be a successful season for the Vikings, even though I predicted they should go to the Super Bowl. The chance to get to the big game was the reason the team brought Favre in as their quarterback, and he took them to that point.

To get that close, and have it end in a Stomach Punch game, will take a long time to get over for Vikings fans. But think of what the players must be feeling. They know that they were one play away from achieving a life-long dream. And whether that important play occurred in the first half, second half, final minute, or in overtime, the Vikings let it slip through their fingers.

Just keep taking deep breaths, and you’ll feel better soon.

[Update: Simmons wrote a ESPN.com column on January 29, 2010, and specifically addressed Level I, That Game. He says he was selfish and made a mistake to think that only Red Sox fans could suffer like that. He's revised Level I to say that "the equation should look like this: (Guillotine + Stomach Punch) x (already tortured history) x (significance of the game itself) x (catchy moniker) = Level 1." And then he goes on to list the top 15 franchises, with examples, currently eligible for a Level I defeat. Read it yourself and weep at where Vikings fans rank.]

This Vikings-Saints matchup in the NFC Championship game should absolutely be a thriller. I stated in my previous post, where I predicted a 37-27 Vikings victory, that I wasn’t as confident they could win as I was back in 1998 versus Atlanta. This hasn’t changed, but I’ve shaped my thoughts on what needs to happen for them to steal one in the Superdome.

A Vikings victory comes down to two factors. First, as I said before, their offensive line has to play as well as they have the last 2.5 games. Favre and the Vikings offense has put up ridiculous numbers (yards and points) since after halftime against the Bears.

That is great, but the line needs to open a few holes for Adrian Peterson to break through. He might not break off a 70-yarder, but he needs at least three 10+ yard runs. AP needs to be a real threat, not a perceived threat.

The noise in that building will be so loud, that with the running game going, it will give Favre, the receivers, and the line an extra half second to set up their pass plays. The running game won’t allow the Saints defensive line and linebackers to pin their ears back and feast on Favre.

The second factor will be hitting the Saints, and their fans, in the mouth early, or responding quickly if the Saints land the first punch. The Vikings absolutely cannot give up points early, then either go three-and-out or turn it over, and give the Saints and that crowd an opportunity to go up by two touchdowns.

The Vikings need to score early by a long drive or special teams play. Something that deflates the crowd a little bit and makes them nervous and less vocal. The fans won’t totally back off, nor will the Saints quit, but Favre just needs a little bit of momentum to turn a little lead into a ten point margin.

I have every confidence in the Vikings that they won’t get blown out like the Cardinals were last weekend. I think they are too talented on both sides of the ball to let it get out if hand. They’ve shown they can march down the field in four plays or eleven. They just need to sustain drives, and when they get in the red zone, they need touchdowns, not field goals.

Losing to the Saints would be hard for the Vikings fan base to take, and Favre haters think they would have ammunition to bash him and Childress with an “I told you so,” theme. This isn’t the case. The Saints are different than the Falcons of 1998 and the Giants of 2000. They are good, explosive, opportunistic, and have been on a Super Bowl course the whole season. I don’t think we should be as devastated with a loss as we have been in the past. There would be no shame in losing to New Orleans, unless, of course, it’s another 0-41 shocker.

That will not happen this year, though. The Vikings are ready to make the jump to the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 years. Brad Childress brought in Favre to win this game, the NFC Championship.

Skol Vikings! Beat the Saints, paint the Big Easy purple, and let’s march to the Super Bowl in Miami. It is going to be a great day.

[post-script: One thing I wanted to mention, but failed to do so when I originally published, is this. Whoever wins the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game will be the Super Bowl Champion for the 2009-2010 NFL season. The Colts and Jets are fine teams, but if they are not as complete as either the Vikings or Saints. If the Colts or Jets win the Super Bowl, it would be an upset on par with Patriots over Rams.]

The unthinkable is about to happen for Minnesota Vikings fans. We’ve been waiting nine years for another chance to reach the Super Bowl, and here we are, just a few short days away from the most anticipated Vikings’ game since an ill-fated Sunday to end the 1998 season. But this 2009 team has Brett Favre leading them, which might give them an even better chance at winning than that great 1998 team, which were 10 point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.

First, let me backtrack and retell my feelings over the last couple years, as the Vikings flirted with bringing Favre in to be their quarterback. You will recall that the summer of 2008 was the first time rumors flew that he might become a Vikings player. Here is what I said in a post from July 8, 2008:

Right now, I don’t believe I could root for [Favre] as a Viking. Favre in a purple uniform? If it happens, and the Vikings go to the Super Bowl with him at QB, I would cheer for Favre throwing three interceptions and fumbling twice, but hope for the Minnesota defense to score three TDs and the team win 21-17…or something like that.

I said this over and over the last two summers to whomever would listen. I just could not wrap my head around him wearing a purple uniform, gunslingin’ all over the field. Fast-forward 13 months. This is what I wrote after many long, slow, deep breaths to catch my composure when he signed with the Vikings on August 18, 2009:

I still don’t know if I’ll be able to root for Favre in a Vikings uniform, but I do know that I’ll be rooting for the idea of him leading this team to championship glory. I just hope the season doesn’t fade into nothing…If nothing else, it will be one heck of a trip. Mission: Miami!

You see what I did there? I started to talk myself into it. This was after the first pre-season game, when Sage Rosenfels played very well against Colts’ practice squad guys. I was ready to roll with Sage into the season and see where it led. Deep down, I think I knew the Vikings would be better with Favre, but then Head Coach Brad Childress made one last call to Favre, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Finally, in my NFL Preview post from September 11, 2009, I laid out all the ingredients for a Super Bowl team, concluding that the Vikings definitely had what it took: good-to-great defense (ended #6 overall), strong quarterback play (you know Favre’s numbers: 33 TDs & 7 INTs), great running game (Adrian Peterson had 1400 yards and 18 TDs), and they had to overcome coaching (Childress only had one or two blips on the season). Overall, not bad. I said:

The Minnesota Vikings should reach the Super Bowl. I’m being biased? Perhaps, having lived in the great state for 30 years. However, what team in the NFC doesn’t have more question marks than the Vikings? Bottom-line: I really like their chances…they’ll win a minimum 11 games and have a 1st round bye. Despite Brad Childress as Head Coach, they have enough experience in almost every offensive and defensive unit to overcome his faults.

I also predicted that the Saints would fight for homefield advantage and wondered whether any team from the NFC had enough to compete with the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl. Well, two of three isn’t bad. You can read my full, mostly accurate preview, here.

Now to the game. And oh what a game it will be. Everyone, rightfully so, wants to talk about Favre and Brees. They were two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and considering Favre’s history and Brees’s future, they should get top-billing. They will both play well, getting at least two touchdowns, but they will not be the reason their team wins the game.

One of these teams will win the game based on their offensive line play. The Saints offensive line is one of the best units in the NFL at preventing quarterback sacks. Part of this has to do with the Saints quick-strike passing attack, but they do have a couple pro-bowlers on the line, so they are good. They form a nice pocket for Brees to pass out of, and recently, they’ve even started run-blocking pretty well. They had a little hiccup against the Cowboys in week 15, but overall, their line has been consistently protecting Brees and allowing him the time to put up great numbers, including a league-record 70%+ completion rate. However, they will have their hands full against a Vikings defensive line who has played very well the last 2 1/2 games, including a dominating performance against an above-average Cowboys offensive line in last weekend’s Divisional round. This will be the matchup that decides it.

On the other side, the Vikings offensive line has been often-maligned this season, despite the numbers Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre put up. I think they have been getting a bad rap, because their worst game of the season occurred on a Sunday night against the Cardinals. They could not establish the run, and Favre did not have time to make the throws he had been making all season. Bryant McKinnie was even pulled from the game for his bad play, and Childress considered pulling Favre in the 3rd quarter due to the beating he was taking. The media and fans were in unison: if the offensive line could not get it together, and immobile Favre could not make plays running for his life. And without the threat of a Peterson game-breaker, we all thought the Vikings offense was basically neutralized. Where could they turn?

And then it just started to click. From after halftime of the Vikings week 16 game versus the Bears through the thorough domination versus the Cowboys, the Vikings scored 108 points. Peterson still wasn’t breaking off long runs, but he had enough 5-8 yard runs to keep opposing linebackers close. And Favre has been superb, a season-long trend. He’s had time to scan the field, looking for his receivers, and has put the ball on their numbers almost every time. I have not complained about the Vikings offensive line in January, which was unheard of a month ago. The Vikings handled the Cowboys vaunted defensive line, and I think they’ll be able to neutralize the Saints as well.

I told people this week that I am not as confident going into this NFC Championship as I was back in 1998, and even in 2000. I knew the 1998 team would beat the Falcons, and I had a pretty good feeling the 2000 team would beat the Giants. This year, however, I’m not as confident, which doesn’t have anything to do with not thinking the Vikings can’t win. I think they can. Except they are playing the Saints, who have been an almost unanimous pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl since late-October.

The Vikings beating the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans would not be an upset along the lines of the Falcons beating the Vikings in 1998, but it is a long shot. The Saints are built to win this year. They have had an unforgettable season, and their defense has been playing well. It would be a great accomplishment for the team and the city of New Orleans for the Saints to march to Miami with a victory.

However, the Saints have not faced the Vikings, who are the most complete team left in the playoffs. The Saints lost two of their last three games at home, and those games still mattered, as home field in the playoffs was not wrapped up, yet. I think Adrian Peterson does break free once, juking former Vikings safety Darren Sharper (he’s lost a step), and Favre has an above-average game. I don’t think the Vikings defense totally slows the Saints offense, but Jared Allen or Kevin Williams will strip-sack Brees at least once, giving the Vikings some much-needed momentum in a quiet dome.

I will admit that I am a bit worried about Percy Harvin’s migraine returning today and that K. Williams and Ray Edwards are slowed by knee injuries, but it’s not enough to stop believing in this Vikings team. They will play a great game on the game’s biggest stage, pulling off the mini-upset.

Vikings will win 37-27, advancing to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. Fans will be able to forget the debacles of 1998 and 2000, and, indeed, we’ll have our “Pants on the Ground” in South Beach. The Mission: Miami will be complete.

The Cowboys have been playing well the last month of the NFL season, but I don’t think they can travel to Minnesota and beat the Vikings in Sunday’s playoff game. The Vikings can score too many points at Mall of America Field, averaging 30+ points per game this year.

The Cowboys can put up points, as well, but I don’t think they score enough to win. Both defenses have been pretty solid, too, especially when the Cowboys went to New Orleans and handed the Saints their first loss of the season. They won’t be able to slow the Vikings this week.

With Brett Favre and the Vikings coaches having two weeks to prepare, they should beat the Cowboys by 10 or more points. I’ll say Vikings win 31-20, setting up a great NFC Championship game in New Orleans.

Last weekend’s first round of the NFL playoffs was interesting, if not always entertaining. With 3 rematches of the final week of the NFL regular season, there was a chance we could have seen some heavyweight contests, but they were mostly duds. I’m not a big Packers fan, as you know, but thank God they put up a fight after the first 10 minutes of their game versus the Cardinals. The first three games did not live up to the hype, as the losing teams could not get out of their own way to make the score close enough to have a chance.

I had picked the Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots, and Cardinals to win the games and went 2-2. The Bengals proved to be frauds, as was shown in their trip to Minnesota in December. Their passing game was non-existent, and they had no answer for the tough Jets defense. I thought they would show more heart at home after being embarrassed by the Jets in week 17. The Jets barely squeaked into the playoffs and proved they belong, but I don’t think the rookie, Mark Sanchez, wins another road playoff game at the Chargers this weekend.

I thought the Cowboys would have another easy game against an overmatched Eagles team – the same outcome as the week before in week 17. The Cowboys have played very well for a month, including a win at the Saints. Their running game has been solid to go along with their quick-hitting passing game. And their defense has been swarming opposing quarterbacks, disrupting their timing. I’ll have my Cowboys-Vikings prediction up later this week.

I was completely shocked at the early knockout punches that Baltimore threw at the Patriots. Come on. The Pats were the team of the decade, still have great pieces at QB, WR and head coach, and that’s the performance they put forth on their home field? Teams come back from early deficits all the time, but when you just give the ball away over and over, you’re not going to win, no matter how great you are. Turnovers are and always will be the great equalizer in the game. Brady, Moss, and Belichick should have a fun offseason. Can the Ravens pull off another shocker against the Colts, the winningest team of the decade? I don’t believe in Peyton Manning and this Colts team as much as others, but I don’t see the Ravens slowing the other great QB in the AFC. Colts are my pick.

Finally, to the Packers and Cardinals, who staged an epic duel in the desert on Sunday night. I thought the Cardinals would win a close game, maybe 27-21, but wow…it turned out so much better. Rooting against the Packers has been a favorite part of being an NFL fan for me. I told people leading up to the game, whenever we’d talk about a potential Vikings-Packers playoff matchup, that I hoped it didn’t happen, because I just don’t like seeing the Packers have success. I would rather see them lose in the first round than see the Vikings beat them later. And the Cardinals held on long enough to send them home.

I will admit that I thought the game was basically over when it was 17-0 early and again when it was 31-10 early in the 2nd half. But two great Packers plays happened. First, Woodson stripped Fitzgerald when the Cards were going to probably score to make it 24-0. The Packers drove and scored their first TD, making it 17-7, keeping them in the ballgame. Second, the Packers kicked an onside kick after making it 31-17, and then scored again to pull within seven points. Two huge plays that surely killed Cardinals momentum at key points of the game.

The game went down as one of the greatest offensive slugfests in NFL history. How ironic that a defensive play decided the game, which I actually Twittered about early in the fourth quarter? Usually, they say the offense with the ball last wins. I said that the defense who makes the first stand would win. So it was.

I’m not going to get caught up in the hype over the missed facemask call on the final play. It happened to the Vikings at Chicago earlier in the year, so I resolved myself to think teams need to win the games before it gets to that point. Rodgers should have won the game on the bomb on the first play of overtime. Then the defensive play never would have happened.

To the Cardinals. In my mind, Kurt Warner has been a Hall of Fame player since the middle of the 2008 season. He has been too good for too long, played in too many big games, including three Super Bowls, while putting up huge numbers. He is good and proved it again against the Packers. He is decisive and crisp with his passes, and his receivers always seem to come down with the ball near them. Their offense has some balance to it, too, as they were able to run the ball effectively against a solid Packers defense.

Now they need to try to duplicate this feat on the road against the Saints. I don’t think they can do it. They will keep it close for most of the game, but that Superdome crowd will disrupt at least three Cards’ drives, either by forcing penalties or turnovers, and the Saints will turn them into points. If the Vikings win, I would rather they faced the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game. I think the Saints will be there, though.

So, to recap, Colts, Saints, and Chargers, all home teams, will play in the games to go to the Super Bowl. You’ll have to wait on pins and needles until later in the week to read if I think the Vikings or Cowboys will join them.

The Minnesota Vikings, Brett Favre, and Brad Childress will put the ridiculousness of the past eight days behind them and beat the Bears on Monday Night Football. Much of the last week has been spent speculating whether or not Favre and Childress can continue to coexist on the Vikings sideline.

My take is that it was over the Monday morning after the terrible game in Carolina, but ESPN could not let this story die, since tonight’s game is on their station. Every team has dialogue between coach and player.

Because it involved Favre, there had to be more read into it than was actually there. Chilly should not have thought about taking Favre out in the 3rd quarter, but Favre should not have talked about it so much in the post game press conference. They did, and the media ran with it.

The Vikings will beat the Bears by 10 or more. The wind and temperature will be a nuisance, but the Vikings should use it to get their running game back on track. Favre should use Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and Shiancoe in their short passing game, and the Defensive front four, without Pat Williams, should do enough to keep Jay Cutler unbanced all night.

Let’s say 27-13 Vikings. And they should have the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs locked up.

If you can overlook the overstatements of how Brett Favre likes to play football, check out the video link below. The NFL Network and NFL Films put a microphone on players and coaches all the time for games, and when the Vikings played the Lions, Favre had one on. I really enjoy these compilations the NFL Network puts together after games. I really like how he interacts with Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice.

At one point, I think around the 4:35 mark, as the Vikings come up to the line of scrimmage at the one yard line, Favre sees one of the Lions defensive linemen in the game and asks him, “What they got you in for?” Right before Adrian Peterson scores a touchdown in the spot where the lineman was playing.

Check it out here in the Vikings.com Media Vault.

Finally, a prediction for the Seattle game today. The Seahawks passing game could spell trouble for the Vikings defense. They’ve thrown the ball over 100 times the last two games, a win versus the Lions and a loss at Arizona. The Seahawks gave up 20 points to Detroit, and only scored 20 last week at Arizona, so I think the Minnesota Vikings offense will continue their streak of dominating opposing defenses.

Adrian Peterson will not make the mistakes he made in their win over Detroit last week, leading that game to be closer than it needed to be in the 2nd half. AP goes over 100 yards again, and Favre will throw for over 200 yards with a couple scores, hopefully at least one to Sidney Rice (they need to get him in the end zone). He might throw an interception, too, but the offensive line will give him plenty of time.

Vikings score over 30 again and defeat the Seahawks 34-17.

My earliest memory of questioning a decision by one of my coaches was my senior year of high school. We were in a dogfight with one of our basketball rivals on our home court late in the fourth quarter. They had the ball, and since we were in a zone defense, they were hanging out by half court holding the ball for the last shot. I was playing at the top of our zone, and I look over at our coach, who is motioning frantically to get my attention.

He mouthed the word, “Press, Press,” which was our signal to automatically foul the other team to stop the clock. We usually only used this call late in a close game when we needed to get the ball back. After hesitating for a couple seconds, I ran up and fouled the guy with the ball (my fourth foul, by the way, which ended up not being a big deal in the end, but still only one away from fouling out of a close game that could still go to overtime). There were 11-12 seconds left on the clock. We had two timeouts left, so we called one to ice the free throw shooter just after he lined up for his two shots, and went to talk over our plan.

I probably did not voice my opposition the right way, but I will just say I asked him something on the more negative side of, “What are you doing?” His answer surprised me, but made sense after he said it. He told us, “We have the two best players on the court, so I want the ball in our hands for the last shot.” Huh. He wanted us to win it, not let them win it on our home court. And the kid I fouled was a decent free throw shooter – 70% or so – but not great, so our coach thought the rowdiness of our fans in our little gym might throw him off and he would miss. Almost.

He made one of two free throws, so we were down one. After dribbling up the court, we called timeout with about six seconds left. I got the ball at the top of the key and started driving toward the hoop. The defenders collapsed on me, hit my arms and the ball, so I lost it, but in the scrum, one of our big guys grabbed it, turned around, and hit a shot at the buzzer, so we won by one point.

Did our coach make the right decision to have us foul at the end of a tie game? It worked out, we won the game, so it was the right decision, right? Maybe. We won the game, but the decision to foul led to us being down by one point. But we made the play our coach hoped we would, and we won the game. Positivity all around.

Things didn’t work out so well for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night football against their rival the Colts. You probably know, but the Patriots had 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with about 2:08 left in the game. Coaches, in this situation, punt the ball 100% of the time. Well, now 99.87% of the time. Belichick and their quarterback, Tom Brady, decided to go for it, and if you’ve seen the replay, missed getting the first down by a foot. Indianapolis got the ball deep in Patriots territory, and they ended up driving the 29 yards for the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds left, not enough time for the Patriots to come back.

Belichick has been getting raked over the coals since the end of the game. He is one of the best coaches in the game over the last decade, but fans are calling him an “idiot,” players are saying it was “the worst coaching decision he has ever made,” and sports talk show guys are yelling just a little bit louder than they normally do over the air. The argument is that the Patriots should have made the Colts offense drive 50-80 yards, the distance depending on the punt and return, against their defense, which is not easy to do in the NFL. But the Colts have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of our generation, and had just moved down the field for a touchdown the previous drive.

Coaches always get blasted for making the safe decisions in games. They call a running play on 3rd and 16. They take a knee at the end of a tie game to go to overtime, instead of trying to move the ball down the field to try to score. They punt the ball from midfield when they are losing by six points with only five or six minutes left. Or they kick a field goal on 4th and goal when they are inside the five yard line, instead of going for a touchdown. There are many instances in a game where both fans and radio guys waste too much time telling each other the coach should have done the exact opposite. Of course, if the coaches had done what the fans and radio guys wanted and it did not work out as they hoped, then they would be saying the coach should have called what he actually did in the game. Fans are always right when the game is over.

I loved the decision by Belichick to go for it on fourth down and do not really care that they did not get the first down. Their defense still had a chance to stop the Colts and win the game. The main reason that I loved the decision is that he was showing trust in his high-powered offense to win the game for the team. Just like my high school coach, he wanted the ball in his team’s hands, not his opponent’s. We never see this in the NFL, especially when a team is playing on the road, as the Patriots were. Many people are saying that Belichick did not trust his defense to stop the Colts one more time. This might be partly true, especially with Manning on the other side, but I think Belichick trusted his offense more than he did not trust his defense. Their offense has defined their team the last few seasons, so he gave them a chance to make a play to win the game. We always say we want teams to play to win, rather than play not to lose. And now, when a team does that, but it doesn’t work out, then we want the opposite?

The Patriots had played a great game and probably proved throughout that they were the better team. In games, they go for it more than most other teams on fourth down and get the first down at a higher percentage than most other teams – 68.5% success (37/54) on fourth down the last three years. So it isn’t like they were doing something out of the ordinary. They have a really good offensive line, a Hall of Fame quarterback, two great receivers, and a running back with decent hands. If any team should have the confidence to make those two yards, New England was it. I will place the blame for not gaining that extra foot on the running back for not running far enough past the first down line before coming back to catch the ball.

The only negative I will throw out is that it could affect their playoff position. They are going to win their own division, so losing the game will not keep them out of the playoffs, but with the Cincinnati Bengals record at 7-2, the Patriots have an uphill battle get the 2nd home field spot in the AFC. But they have shown that they can go to an opponent’s stadium and play pretty well. I do not think they are worried about playing the AFC Championship game back on the Colts home field. Their three losses, all on the road, are by a combined 11 points (Jets, Broncos, and Colts), with the last two coming on the last play of the game. I think the Patriots are still in a good position.

I’ll let you know if I feel the same way if the Minnesota Vikings are ever playing against their rival and lose the game, because their coach made a gutsy call that did not work out.

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Another opinion, with examples of other coaching decisions gone wrong.
And another, by one of my favorite satire writers in any genre.
And a third, blaming the official more than the coaching decision.
Finally, NFL statistics show it was the right decision to go for it on 4th down.