matt weighs in

Bill Simmons, ESPN.com’s resident Boston sports fan turned prominent national sports writer and podcaster, wrote a “Levels of Losing” column back in 2002, in which he attempted to properly put into context, with examples, the level to which many fans experience pain when their favorite teams lose a big game. It was the second place I referenced Sunday night, 135 minutes after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship game. The Vikings were one play and a made field goal at the end of regulation away from going to their first Super Bowl in 33 years. But then it happened, the Vikings lost the coin toss in overtime, didn’t touch the ball again, and limped into the off-season with questions of what could have been and what might be for next year.

(For those wondering, those immediate 135 minutes after the game were spent with my friends on Twitter, while listening to Vikings Fan Line on KFAN-AM 1130, which was one big cathartic group hug as we began to accept that there was no Super Bowl for the Vikings in two weeks).

Simmons’ Level II loss for a fan base is the “Stomach Punch” game, which as you can imagine, takes your breath away and leaves you gasping for air, and an explanation, as to what just occurred. He explains it like this:

Definition: Now we’ve moved into rarefied territory, any roller-coaster game that ends with A) an opponent making a pivotal (sometimes improbable) play, or B) one of your guys failing in the clutch…usually ends with fans filing out after the game in stunned disbelief, if they can even move at all…always haunting, sometimes scarring…there are degrees to the Stomach Punch Game, depending on the situation…for instance…Cleveland’s Earnest Byner fumbling against Denver when he was about two yards and 0.2 seconds away from sending the Browns to the Super Bowl.

Yep. A stomach punch. Breathless. No words to explain. If Porter for the Saints would have ran the INT back for a touchdown, you would have combined the Stomach Punch game with Level III’s “The Guillotine” game and would have challenged his Level I game for losing, simply titled, “That Game.” At least it wasn’t That Game.

The Vikings seemed to have a really good game plan for the Saints, as most statistical categories show. They dominated in yards gained, first downs, time of possession, 3rd down conversion percentage, and plays ran. They forced the Saints to punt seven times. However, as you know, the Vikings lost the turnover battle, fumbling three times and, gulp, throwing two interceptions, while only falling on one Saints fumble.

Despite this, the Vikings were in a great position to win the game. They had the ball with just over a minute left in Saints territory and two timeouts. After two running plays gained no yards, the Vikings called timeout. We’ll skip over the 12 men on the field penalty, as that was just sophomoric, but I do want to talk about the play call.

If you watch the replay, you will see that the Vikings are in the exact same set after the penalty as they were when they were whistled for 12 men. The only difference is that the fullback, Tahi, is not on the field for 3rd and 15. The Vikings were going to pass and try to gain some more yards on this 3rd down play, there was just some confusion on what personnel package they were using. And I have no problem with calling the pass play on 3rd down. They rolled out to the right, had receivers at three different levels near the sideline, and the right decision should have been easy to make.

We’ll maybe never know why, but quarterback Brett Favre decided to throw it to the middle of the field to Sidney Rice, who was open for a second, but never should have been considered. We know he should have thrown it to Bernard Berrian on the sideline or ran a few yards, but he didn’t, and the interception happened. I can only think that Favre thought they needed more than a few yards to give Longwell a chance to win the game or he saw something pre-snap to make him think the middle of the field would be open with all the action moving to the right in front of him. He didn’t take into account that the Saints right corner, Porter, would be moving that way as well, putting him in perfect position to pick off the pass.

After making the right play all season, I still can not believe that Favre chose that moment to give so many people the satisfaction of saying, “I told you so.” I can not for the life of me believe he didn’t hit Berrian and give Longwell the chance to win it, which is what the Vikings were playing for after they got the first down at the Saints 33 and 1:06 remaining. If he throws it to Berrian, he catches it and goes out of bounds or is tackled between the 30 and 33 yard line, giving Longwell a very makeable 47-51 yard field goal attempt.

As much as that decision hurt the Vikings chances to win the hard-fought game, there were plenty of other missed opportunities that contributed to the game being tied and sent into overtime. I’m one to look at the body of a game as a whole and not think that one play is fully responsible for a win or loss. I try not to get caught up in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mentality when so much is at stake. After the interception, the Vikings still had overtime to win the game.

Below are the other factors in the game that kept the Vikings from blowing the Saints out of their own building in the biggest game of the season:

* Fumbled in huge spots: Adrian Peterson missed a handoff from Favre toward the end of the 1st half, costing the Vikings at least three points, and Bernard Berrian fumbled inside the 15-yard line with under ten minutes left in the 4th quarter, also costing them at least three points. Percy Harvin fumbled inside his own 15-yard line early in the 4th quarter, setting up a very short field for the Saints, and they scored a touchdown. (Quick word about AP’s fumbles: the Vikings recovered two of the three fumbles. Vikings scored a TD after his second fumble and Favre was picked off in the drive after AP busted his @ss to get ten yards downfield and beat three Saints to the ball on this third fumble. Let it be known that the refs missed a high-low illegal hit on Favre on his interception and the Vikings should have had first down at the Saints 19 after).

* Failed to capitalize on Saints mistakes: see AP’s fumble above, which happened after Reggie Bush fumbled a punt, giving the Vikings great field position and the chance to take the lead into the half. But also, the Saints fumbled two other times and recovered themselves. Drew Brees fumbled a snap deep in his own territory in the 4th quarter. It isn’t easy to pick up by the defensive line, but we have seen it happen. And Brees also fumbled deep in his own territory when he was sacked by Ray Edwards with just under five minutes left. If the Vikings get that last fumble by Brees, they take the lead by three or seven, forcing the Saints to drive to tie or win the game. The Vikings had forced the Saints to go three-and-out twice in the fourth quarter, so it was not going to be easy for the Saints to get the points.

* Failed to hang on to an interception in overtime: Oh what might have been. Tyrell Johnson had a tipped pass in his fingertips for an interception on the Saints final drive. Tipped balls are never easy to catch for defensive backs, as they are concentrating on making the hit on the receiver, but it looks like the ball hits pretty softly in his hands, and that it was definitely a play he should have made. The Vikings just needed to get one stop in overtime, and they were going to drive the field to win the game. Before the dropped INT, the Vikings had the Saints at 3rd and 10, before giving up a nine yard catch that was upheld on replay. Saints just barely converted on 4th and 1, and easily could have had the spot overturned on replay. Yep, what might have been.

People like to say that one team might have deserved to win a game over another, and many are saying this about the Saints. The Saints forced five Vikings turnovers, including two inside their own 20 yard line and an interception to prevent the Vikings from attempting a field goal to win the game. Others are saying that the Vikings deserved to win the game, because they dominated most of the statistical categories, as I stated above, and because they went into a very hostile environment and went toe-to-toe with the home team. I don’t look at it like one team deserved the win over the other.

In this game, which was pretty evenly matched (mostly because of turnovers, but that’s part of the game), I would say that the Saints survived to win the game. The Vikings moved the ball at will on offense and easily would have scored in the high-30s if not for the turnovers. And the VIkings defense forced seven punts, forced three fumbles themselves, but just could not make one more big play that would have helped out the offense. The Vikings would have survived their turnovers and missed opportunities, if they had won that game.

Alas, we are left to pick up the pieces of another year of being thisclose to seeing the Vikings in a Super Bowl. It was one heck of an exciting game to watch, and as much as I was left wondering why I was left gasping for breath when it was over, I couldn’t deny that I had been entertained.

At the beginning of the year, and before the playoffs started, I was telling people that getting to the NFC Championship game would be a successful season for the Vikings, even though I predicted they should go to the Super Bowl. The chance to get to the big game was the reason the team brought Favre in as their quarterback, and he took them to that point.

To get that close, and have it end in a Stomach Punch game, will take a long time to get over for Vikings fans. But think of what the players must be feeling. They know that they were one play away from achieving a life-long dream. And whether that important play occurred in the first half, second half, final minute, or in overtime, the Vikings let it slip through their fingers.

Just keep taking deep breaths, and you’ll feel better soon.

[Update: Simmons wrote a ESPN.com column on January 29, 2010, and specifically addressed Level I, That Game. He says he was selfish and made a mistake to think that only Red Sox fans could suffer like that. He's revised Level I to say that "the equation should look like this: (Guillotine + Stomach Punch) x (already tortured history) x (significance of the game itself) x (catchy moniker) = Level 1." And then he goes on to list the top 15 franchises, with examples, currently eligible for a Level I defeat. Read it yourself and weep at where Vikings fans rank.]

This Vikings-Saints matchup in the NFC Championship game should absolutely be a thriller. I stated in my previous post, where I predicted a 37-27 Vikings victory, that I wasn’t as confident they could win as I was back in 1998 versus Atlanta. This hasn’t changed, but I’ve shaped my thoughts on what needs to happen for them to steal one in the Superdome.

A Vikings victory comes down to two factors. First, as I said before, their offensive line has to play as well as they have the last 2.5 games. Favre and the Vikings offense has put up ridiculous numbers (yards and points) since after halftime against the Bears.

That is great, but the line needs to open a few holes for Adrian Peterson to break through. He might not break off a 70-yarder, but he needs at least three 10+ yard runs. AP needs to be a real threat, not a perceived threat.

The noise in that building will be so loud, that with the running game going, it will give Favre, the receivers, and the line an extra half second to set up their pass plays. The running game won’t allow the Saints defensive line and linebackers to pin their ears back and feast on Favre.

The second factor will be hitting the Saints, and their fans, in the mouth early, or responding quickly if the Saints land the first punch. The Vikings absolutely cannot give up points early, then either go three-and-out or turn it over, and give the Saints and that crowd an opportunity to go up by two touchdowns.

The Vikings need to score early by a long drive or special teams play. Something that deflates the crowd a little bit and makes them nervous and less vocal. The fans won’t totally back off, nor will the Saints quit, but Favre just needs a little bit of momentum to turn a little lead into a ten point margin.

I have every confidence in the Vikings that they won’t get blown out like the Cardinals were last weekend. I think they are too talented on both sides of the ball to let it get out if hand. They’ve shown they can march down the field in four plays or eleven. They just need to sustain drives, and when they get in the red zone, they need touchdowns, not field goals.

Losing to the Saints would be hard for the Vikings fan base to take, and Favre haters think they would have ammunition to bash him and Childress with an “I told you so,” theme. This isn’t the case. The Saints are different than the Falcons of 1998 and the Giants of 2000. They are good, explosive, opportunistic, and have been on a Super Bowl course the whole season. I don’t think we should be as devastated with a loss as we have been in the past. There would be no shame in losing to New Orleans, unless, of course, it’s another 0-41 shocker.

That will not happen this year, though. The Vikings are ready to make the jump to the Super Bowl for the first time in 33 years. Brad Childress brought in Favre to win this game, the NFC Championship.

Skol Vikings! Beat the Saints, paint the Big Easy purple, and let’s march to the Super Bowl in Miami. It is going to be a great day.

[post-script: One thing I wanted to mention, but failed to do so when I originally published, is this. Whoever wins the Vikings-Saints NFC Championship game will be the Super Bowl Champion for the 2009-2010 NFL season. The Colts and Jets are fine teams, but if they are not as complete as either the Vikings or Saints. If the Colts or Jets win the Super Bowl, it would be an upset on par with Patriots over Rams.]

The unthinkable is about to happen for Minnesota Vikings fans. We’ve been waiting nine years for another chance to reach the Super Bowl, and here we are, just a few short days away from the most anticipated Vikings’ game since an ill-fated Sunday to end the 1998 season. But this 2009 team has Brett Favre leading them, which might give them an even better chance at winning than that great 1998 team, which were 10 point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons.

First, let me backtrack and retell my feelings over the last couple years, as the Vikings flirted with bringing Favre in to be their quarterback. You will recall that the summer of 2008 was the first time rumors flew that he might become a Vikings player. Here is what I said in a post from July 8, 2008:

Right now, I don’t believe I could root for [Favre] as a Viking. Favre in a purple uniform? If it happens, and the Vikings go to the Super Bowl with him at QB, I would cheer for Favre throwing three interceptions and fumbling twice, but hope for the Minnesota defense to score three TDs and the team win 21-17…or something like that.

I said this over and over the last two summers to whomever would listen. I just could not wrap my head around him wearing a purple uniform, gunslingin’ all over the field. Fast-forward 13 months. This is what I wrote after many long, slow, deep breaths to catch my composure when he signed with the Vikings on August 18, 2009:

I still don’t know if I’ll be able to root for Favre in a Vikings uniform, but I do know that I’ll be rooting for the idea of him leading this team to championship glory. I just hope the season doesn’t fade into nothing…If nothing else, it will be one heck of a trip. Mission: Miami!

You see what I did there? I started to talk myself into it. This was after the first pre-season game, when Sage Rosenfels played very well against Colts’ practice squad guys. I was ready to roll with Sage into the season and see where it led. Deep down, I think I knew the Vikings would be better with Favre, but then Head Coach Brad Childress made one last call to Favre, and the rest, as they say, is history.

Finally, in my NFL Preview post from September 11, 2009, I laid out all the ingredients for a Super Bowl team, concluding that the Vikings definitely had what it took: good-to-great defense (ended #6 overall), strong quarterback play (you know Favre’s numbers: 33 TDs & 7 INTs), great running game (Adrian Peterson had 1400 yards and 18 TDs), and they had to overcome coaching (Childress only had one or two blips on the season). Overall, not bad. I said:

The Minnesota Vikings should reach the Super Bowl. I’m being biased? Perhaps, having lived in the great state for 30 years. However, what team in the NFC doesn’t have more question marks than the Vikings? Bottom-line: I really like their chances…they’ll win a minimum 11 games and have a 1st round bye. Despite Brad Childress as Head Coach, they have enough experience in almost every offensive and defensive unit to overcome his faults.

I also predicted that the Saints would fight for homefield advantage and wondered whether any team from the NFC had enough to compete with the Steelers or Patriots in the Super Bowl. Well, two of three isn’t bad. You can read my full, mostly accurate preview, here.

Now to the game. And oh what a game it will be. Everyone, rightfully so, wants to talk about Favre and Brees. They were two of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and considering Favre’s history and Brees’s future, they should get top-billing. They will both play well, getting at least two touchdowns, but they will not be the reason their team wins the game.

One of these teams will win the game based on their offensive line play. The Saints offensive line is one of the best units in the NFL at preventing quarterback sacks. Part of this has to do with the Saints quick-strike passing attack, but they do have a couple pro-bowlers on the line, so they are good. They form a nice pocket for Brees to pass out of, and recently, they’ve even started run-blocking pretty well. They had a little hiccup against the Cowboys in week 15, but overall, their line has been consistently protecting Brees and allowing him the time to put up great numbers, including a league-record 70%+ completion rate. However, they will have their hands full against a Vikings defensive line who has played very well the last 2 1/2 games, including a dominating performance against an above-average Cowboys offensive line in last weekend’s Divisional round. This will be the matchup that decides it.

On the other side, the Vikings offensive line has been often-maligned this season, despite the numbers Adrian Peterson and Brett Favre put up. I think they have been getting a bad rap, because their worst game of the season occurred on a Sunday night against the Cardinals. They could not establish the run, and Favre did not have time to make the throws he had been making all season. Bryant McKinnie was even pulled from the game for his bad play, and Childress considered pulling Favre in the 3rd quarter due to the beating he was taking. The media and fans were in unison: if the offensive line could not get it together, and immobile Favre could not make plays running for his life. And without the threat of a Peterson game-breaker, we all thought the Vikings offense was basically neutralized. Where could they turn?

And then it just started to click. From after halftime of the Vikings week 16 game versus the Bears through the thorough domination versus the Cowboys, the Vikings scored 108 points. Peterson still wasn’t breaking off long runs, but he had enough 5-8 yard runs to keep opposing linebackers close. And Favre has been superb, a season-long trend. He’s had time to scan the field, looking for his receivers, and has put the ball on their numbers almost every time. I have not complained about the Vikings offensive line in January, which was unheard of a month ago. The Vikings handled the Cowboys vaunted defensive line, and I think they’ll be able to neutralize the Saints as well.

I told people this week that I am not as confident going into this NFC Championship as I was back in 1998, and even in 2000. I knew the 1998 team would beat the Falcons, and I had a pretty good feeling the 2000 team would beat the Giants. This year, however, I’m not as confident, which doesn’t have anything to do with not thinking the Vikings can’t win. I think they can. Except they are playing the Saints, who have been an almost unanimous pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl since late-October.

The Vikings beating the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans would not be an upset along the lines of the Falcons beating the Vikings in 1998, but it is a long shot. The Saints are built to win this year. They have had an unforgettable season, and their defense has been playing well. It would be a great accomplishment for the team and the city of New Orleans for the Saints to march to Miami with a victory.

However, the Saints have not faced the Vikings, who are the most complete team left in the playoffs. The Saints lost two of their last three games at home, and those games still mattered, as home field in the playoffs was not wrapped up, yet. I think Adrian Peterson does break free once, juking former Vikings safety Darren Sharper (he’s lost a step), and Favre has an above-average game. I don’t think the Vikings defense totally slows the Saints offense, but Jared Allen or Kevin Williams will strip-sack Brees at least once, giving the Vikings some much-needed momentum in a quiet dome.

I will admit that I am a bit worried about Percy Harvin’s migraine returning today and that K. Williams and Ray Edwards are slowed by knee injuries, but it’s not enough to stop believing in this Vikings team. They will play a great game on the game’s biggest stage, pulling off the mini-upset.

Vikings will win 37-27, advancing to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. Fans will be able to forget the debacles of 1998 and 2000, and, indeed, we’ll have our “Pants on the Ground” in South Beach. The Mission: Miami will be complete.

The Cowboys have been playing well the last month of the NFL season, but I don’t think they can travel to Minnesota and beat the Vikings in Sunday’s playoff game. The Vikings can score too many points at Mall of America Field, averaging 30+ points per game this year.

The Cowboys can put up points, as well, but I don’t think they score enough to win. Both defenses have been pretty solid, too, especially when the Cowboys went to New Orleans and handed the Saints their first loss of the season. They won’t be able to slow the Vikings this week.

With Brett Favre and the Vikings coaches having two weeks to prepare, they should beat the Cowboys by 10 or more points. I’ll say Vikings win 31-20, setting up a great NFC Championship game in New Orleans.

Last weekend’s first round of the NFL playoffs was interesting, if not always entertaining. With 3 rematches of the final week of the NFL regular season, there was a chance we could have seen some heavyweight contests, but they were mostly duds. I’m not a big Packers fan, as you know, but thank God they put up a fight after the first 10 minutes of their game versus the Cardinals. The first three games did not live up to the hype, as the losing teams could not get out of their own way to make the score close enough to have a chance.

I had picked the Bengals, Cowboys, Patriots, and Cardinals to win the games and went 2-2. The Bengals proved to be frauds, as was shown in their trip to Minnesota in December. Their passing game was non-existent, and they had no answer for the tough Jets defense. I thought they would show more heart at home after being embarrassed by the Jets in week 17. The Jets barely squeaked into the playoffs and proved they belong, but I don’t think the rookie, Mark Sanchez, wins another road playoff game at the Chargers this weekend.

I thought the Cowboys would have another easy game against an overmatched Eagles team – the same outcome as the week before in week 17. The Cowboys have played very well for a month, including a win at the Saints. Their running game has been solid to go along with their quick-hitting passing game. And their defense has been swarming opposing quarterbacks, disrupting their timing. I’ll have my Cowboys-Vikings prediction up later this week.

I was completely shocked at the early knockout punches that Baltimore threw at the Patriots. Come on. The Pats were the team of the decade, still have great pieces at QB, WR and head coach, and that’s the performance they put forth on their home field? Teams come back from early deficits all the time, but when you just give the ball away over and over, you’re not going to win, no matter how great you are. Turnovers are and always will be the great equalizer in the game. Brady, Moss, and Belichick should have a fun offseason. Can the Ravens pull off another shocker against the Colts, the winningest team of the decade? I don’t believe in Peyton Manning and this Colts team as much as others, but I don’t see the Ravens slowing the other great QB in the AFC. Colts are my pick.

Finally, to the Packers and Cardinals, who staged an epic duel in the desert on Sunday night. I thought the Cardinals would win a close game, maybe 27-21, but wow…it turned out so much better. Rooting against the Packers has been a favorite part of being an NFL fan for me. I told people leading up to the game, whenever we’d talk about a potential Vikings-Packers playoff matchup, that I hoped it didn’t happen, because I just don’t like seeing the Packers have success. I would rather see them lose in the first round than see the Vikings beat them later. And the Cardinals held on long enough to send them home.

I will admit that I thought the game was basically over when it was 17-0 early and again when it was 31-10 early in the 2nd half. But two great Packers plays happened. First, Woodson stripped Fitzgerald when the Cards were going to probably score to make it 24-0. The Packers drove and scored their first TD, making it 17-7, keeping them in the ballgame. Second, the Packers kicked an onside kick after making it 31-17, and then scored again to pull within seven points. Two huge plays that surely killed Cardinals momentum at key points of the game.

The game went down as one of the greatest offensive slugfests in NFL history. How ironic that a defensive play decided the game, which I actually Twittered about early in the fourth quarter? Usually, they say the offense with the ball last wins. I said that the defense who makes the first stand would win. So it was.

I’m not going to get caught up in the hype over the missed facemask call on the final play. It happened to the Vikings at Chicago earlier in the year, so I resolved myself to think teams need to win the games before it gets to that point. Rodgers should have won the game on the bomb on the first play of overtime. Then the defensive play never would have happened.

To the Cardinals. In my mind, Kurt Warner has been a Hall of Fame player since the middle of the 2008 season. He has been too good for too long, played in too many big games, including three Super Bowls, while putting up huge numbers. He is good and proved it again against the Packers. He is decisive and crisp with his passes, and his receivers always seem to come down with the ball near them. Their offense has some balance to it, too, as they were able to run the ball effectively against a solid Packers defense.

Now they need to try to duplicate this feat on the road against the Saints. I don’t think they can do it. They will keep it close for most of the game, but that Superdome crowd will disrupt at least three Cards’ drives, either by forcing penalties or turnovers, and the Saints will turn them into points. If the Vikings win, I would rather they faced the Cardinals in the NFC Championship game. I think the Saints will be there, though.

So, to recap, Colts, Saints, and Chargers, all home teams, will play in the games to go to the Super Bowl. You’ll have to wait on pins and needles until later in the week to read if I think the Vikings or Cowboys will join them.

The Minnesota Vikings, Brett Favre, and Brad Childress will put the ridiculousness of the past eight days behind them and beat the Bears on Monday Night Football. Much of the last week has been spent speculating whether or not Favre and Childress can continue to coexist on the Vikings sideline.

My take is that it was over the Monday morning after the terrible game in Carolina, but ESPN could not let this story die, since tonight’s game is on their station. Every team has dialogue between coach and player.

Because it involved Favre, there had to be more read into it than was actually there. Chilly should not have thought about taking Favre out in the 3rd quarter, but Favre should not have talked about it so much in the post game press conference. They did, and the media ran with it.

The Vikings will beat the Bears by 10 or more. The wind and temperature will be a nuisance, but the Vikings should use it to get their running game back on track. Favre should use Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and Shiancoe in their short passing game, and the Defensive front four, without Pat Williams, should do enough to keep Jay Cutler unbanced all night.

Let’s say 27-13 Vikings. And they should have the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs locked up.

If you can overlook the overstatements of how Brett Favre likes to play football, check out the video link below. The NFL Network and NFL Films put a microphone on players and coaches all the time for games, and when the Vikings played the Lions, Favre had one on. I really enjoy these compilations the NFL Network puts together after games. I really like how he interacts with Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice.

At one point, I think around the 4:35 mark, as the Vikings come up to the line of scrimmage at the one yard line, Favre sees one of the Lions defensive linemen in the game and asks him, “What they got you in for?” Right before Adrian Peterson scores a touchdown in the spot where the lineman was playing.

Check it out here in the Vikings.com Media Vault.

Finally, a prediction for the Seattle game today. The Seahawks passing game could spell trouble for the Vikings defense. They’ve thrown the ball over 100 times the last two games, a win versus the Lions and a loss at Arizona. The Seahawks gave up 20 points to Detroit, and only scored 20 last week at Arizona, so I think the Minnesota Vikings offense will continue their streak of dominating opposing defenses.

Adrian Peterson will not make the mistakes he made in their win over Detroit last week, leading that game to be closer than it needed to be in the 2nd half. AP goes over 100 yards again, and Favre will throw for over 200 yards with a couple scores, hopefully at least one to Sidney Rice (they need to get him in the end zone). He might throw an interception, too, but the offensive line will give him plenty of time.

Vikings score over 30 again and defeat the Seahawks 34-17.

My earliest memory of questioning a decision by one of my coaches was my senior year of high school. We were in a dogfight with one of our basketball rivals on our home court late in the fourth quarter. They had the ball, and since we were in a zone defense, they were hanging out by half court holding the ball for the last shot. I was playing at the top of our zone, and I look over at our coach, who is motioning frantically to get my attention.

He mouthed the word, “Press, Press,” which was our signal to automatically foul the other team to stop the clock. We usually only used this call late in a close game when we needed to get the ball back. After hesitating for a couple seconds, I ran up and fouled the guy with the ball (my fourth foul, by the way, which ended up not being a big deal in the end, but still only one away from fouling out of a close game that could still go to overtime). There were 11-12 seconds left on the clock. We had two timeouts left, so we called one to ice the free throw shooter just after he lined up for his two shots, and went to talk over our plan.

I probably did not voice my opposition the right way, but I will just say I asked him something on the more negative side of, “What are you doing?” His answer surprised me, but made sense after he said it. He told us, “We have the two best players on the court, so I want the ball in our hands for the last shot.” Huh. He wanted us to win it, not let them win it on our home court. And the kid I fouled was a decent free throw shooter – 70% or so – but not great, so our coach thought the rowdiness of our fans in our little gym might throw him off and he would miss. Almost.

He made one of two free throws, so we were down one. After dribbling up the court, we called timeout with about six seconds left. I got the ball at the top of the key and started driving toward the hoop. The defenders collapsed on me, hit my arms and the ball, so I lost it, but in the scrum, one of our big guys grabbed it, turned around, and hit a shot at the buzzer, so we won by one point.

Did our coach make the right decision to have us foul at the end of a tie game? It worked out, we won the game, so it was the right decision, right? Maybe. We won the game, but the decision to foul led to us being down by one point. But we made the play our coach hoped we would, and we won the game. Positivity all around.

Things didn’t work out so well for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night football against their rival the Colts. You probably know, but the Patriots had 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with about 2:08 left in the game. Coaches, in this situation, punt the ball 100% of the time. Well, now 99.87% of the time. Belichick and their quarterback, Tom Brady, decided to go for it, and if you’ve seen the replay, missed getting the first down by a foot. Indianapolis got the ball deep in Patriots territory, and they ended up driving the 29 yards for the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds left, not enough time for the Patriots to come back.

Belichick has been getting raked over the coals since the end of the game. He is one of the best coaches in the game over the last decade, but fans are calling him an “idiot,” players are saying it was “the worst coaching decision he has ever made,” and sports talk show guys are yelling just a little bit louder than they normally do over the air. The argument is that the Patriots should have made the Colts offense drive 50-80 yards, the distance depending on the punt and return, against their defense, which is not easy to do in the NFL. But the Colts have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of our generation, and had just moved down the field for a touchdown the previous drive.

Coaches always get blasted for making the safe decisions in games. They call a running play on 3rd and 16. They take a knee at the end of a tie game to go to overtime, instead of trying to move the ball down the field to try to score. They punt the ball from midfield when they are losing by six points with only five or six minutes left. Or they kick a field goal on 4th and goal when they are inside the five yard line, instead of going for a touchdown. There are many instances in a game where both fans and radio guys waste too much time telling each other the coach should have done the exact opposite. Of course, if the coaches had done what the fans and radio guys wanted and it did not work out as they hoped, then they would be saying the coach should have called what he actually did in the game. Fans are always right when the game is over.

I loved the decision by Belichick to go for it on fourth down and do not really care that they did not get the first down. Their defense still had a chance to stop the Colts and win the game. The main reason that I loved the decision is that he was showing trust in his high-powered offense to win the game for the team. Just like my high school coach, he wanted the ball in his team’s hands, not his opponent’s. We never see this in the NFL, especially when a team is playing on the road, as the Patriots were. Many people are saying that Belichick did not trust his defense to stop the Colts one more time. This might be partly true, especially with Manning on the other side, but I think Belichick trusted his offense more than he did not trust his defense. Their offense has defined their team the last few seasons, so he gave them a chance to make a play to win the game. We always say we want teams to play to win, rather than play not to lose. And now, when a team does that, but it doesn’t work out, then we want the opposite?

The Patriots had played a great game and probably proved throughout that they were the better team. In games, they go for it more than most other teams on fourth down and get the first down at a higher percentage than most other teams – 68.5% success (37/54) on fourth down the last three years. So it isn’t like they were doing something out of the ordinary. They have a really good offensive line, a Hall of Fame quarterback, two great receivers, and a running back with decent hands. If any team should have the confidence to make those two yards, New England was it. I will place the blame for not gaining that extra foot on the running back for not running far enough past the first down line before coming back to catch the ball.

The only negative I will throw out is that it could affect their playoff position. They are going to win their own division, so losing the game will not keep them out of the playoffs, but with the Cincinnati Bengals record at 7-2, the Patriots have an uphill battle get the 2nd home field spot in the AFC. But they have shown that they can go to an opponent’s stadium and play pretty well. I do not think they are worried about playing the AFC Championship game back on the Colts home field. Their three losses, all on the road, are by a combined 11 points (Jets, Broncos, and Colts), with the last two coming on the last play of the game. I think the Patriots are still in a good position.

I’ll let you know if I feel the same way if the Minnesota Vikings are ever playing against their rival and lose the game, because their coach made a gutsy call that did not work out.

*********

Another opinion, with examples of other coaching decisions gone wrong.
And another, by one of my favorite satire writers in any genre.
And a third, blaming the official more than the coaching decision.
Finally, NFL statistics show it was the right decision to go for it on 4th down.

[Update: After a day of thought, I changed the name of this weekly post to Weekly Weight, instead of Weekly Rave. Why, you ask? Because I'm going to try to do a Daily Rave. We'll see how that goes.]

This is the first ever weekly rave, where I will write about something I am really enjoying at the moment. If nothing else, it will get me to sit down in front of the computer to actually write more than a couple times per month. I have an easy topic this week: the Minnesota Vikings.

Even though the Vikings didn’t play, due to their bye, they extended their lead in the NFC North division, since all three other teams lost. The Packers…hahaha…ummm…give me a second…uhh, the Packers…heeheehee. Oh my, let’s try again. The Packers lost to the Buccaneers, who had previously not won a game this year. The Bears were destroyed at home by Arizona, 21-41 and were actually down 7-31 at the half. And the Lions were the Lions. Up early in their game at Seattle, but ultimately blew it and lost by 12.

Green Bay might be in a free fall, as I have read nothing positive in the last 24 hours since their loss. Sports writers are second-guessing the play calling, the offensive line schemes to protect Aaron Rodgers, and questioning the change to the 3-4 defense. Packers fans are howling worse, calling for Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s head, General Manager Ted Thompson’s head, or, in most cases, both. Chicago can not play good defense and score enough points in the same week (except against the Browns). Jay Cutler’s passing numbers weren’t bad in Sunday, but the defense couldn’t stop Arizona, giving up five passing touchdowns of their own. They seem to be lost right now, as well, with no clear answers in how to fix it soon enough to make a push to the playoffs. The Lions are who we thought they were. Terrible, and on their way to no more than two wins on the season.

Which brings us to the Vikings. They are sitting 7-1 and on top of the division by three games (Packers and Bears are both 4-4). And since the Vikings beat the Packers twice and hold the tie-breaker, really they are four games up on them. The Vikings and Bears usually split their season series, so Chicago will have a really hard time gaining any ground head-to-head. And since the Vikings have three very winnable home games in a row coming out of the bye, beginning with the Lions on Sunday, the chances of either Chicago or Green Bay coming from behind are very slim. Never say never, but I am saying never.

When Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress made the call to Brett Favre in mid-August, I am pretty sure this is where he was hoping the team would be sitting. Actually, this is probably even better. I thought they would be 6-2, at best, with at least one loss to the Packers and either the Ravens or Steelers. But they are even better. Favre has not looked the same as he did the last half of last year, when he was fighting a nagging pain in his throwing arm, or as he did for most of the last few seasons in Green Bay. He’s protecting the ball, making good reads, and putting the ball in his receivers hands where they can make plays. Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin are all sharing in the benefits of having Favre at quarterback. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is outstanding, and there are not many balls he is throwing that shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place.

People want to criticize the running game, because Adrian Peterson isn’t breaking off the long runs for touchdowns that we are accustomed to seeing. Not sure we should complain when he is still on pace for nearly 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns. Those are MVP numbers. The offensive line has had trouble opening big holes consistently. Whether it is because there is a new center, 7-8 defensive players at the line, or they are just getting beat has not been a huge problem so far. Peterson has been able to break off at least one long run in almost every 2nd half, so I think they’ll be fine, and AP will run wild all day against some pretty bad teams left on the schedule.

The Vikings have had some outstanding, and exciting plays, in the first half of the season, as well. My favorites: Peterson’s long TD run versus the Browns in week one, where he shoved a defender out of bounds and accelerated to the end zone, Favre’s end-of-game TD throw to Greg Lewis to beat the 49ers with :02 left, Percy Harvin’s kickoff return TDs, Sidney Rice’s long catch versus the Ravens to set up the game-winning field goal, Peterson running over William Gay for a nice gain in the 2nd half versus the Steelers, and Favre’s seven TDs (0 interceptions) versus the Packers.

Overall, the Vikings are sitting very nicely going into their last eight games. I would argue that they should be 8-0, along with the Saints and Colts, because they have outplayed every team they have played so far, including in the Steelers loss. Right now, the only NFC teams I would be nervous about playing in the playoffs are the Saints, the Cowboys, and maybe the Eagles and Cardinals, who are both pretty inconsistent. This we most likely know: the Vikings shouldn’t have to play outdoors in the playoffs, as they should end up the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC.

Whether or not they make it all the way to the Super Bowl will be decided, but what team has played better and more consistent than the Vikings through eight games? Colts have squeaked by two mediocre teams the last two weeks at home, and the Saints have fallen behind in the first half of at least three games before rallying to win. The Vikings will keep the pressure on offensively and can definitely score enough points to win any game they play. I like their chances.

I think Minnesota Vikings’ fans have come around to the idea of seeing Brett Favre wearing a purple uniform. At least I have. Maybe it’s the team’s 6-1 record. Maybe it’s his 12 TDs and 3 INTs. Or maybe it’s seeing him move the ball up-and-down the field each week, no matter who the opponent has been. Whatever it is, after seeing a really good Vikings team struggle to a 10-6 record in 2008, led by erratic quarterback play, having Favre throwing lasers all over the field with great confidence should have put aside anyone’s doubt that this was a good move by the team.

I wonder what it would take for Green Bay Packers’ fans to do the same. Seeing a Packers win over the Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field will probably help, but only with a total collapse by the Vikings offense, including multiple interceptions by Favre and one late in the game, would the fans be able to fully let go and move on with the team they have. I have believed for some time now that Packers’ fans aren’t as angry with Favre for playing for the Vikings as they are afraid of what he could do with a team ready to do some damage in the post-season. Their fears have been realized through the first seven games of the season, including the first Favre butchering in the teams’ October 5th match-up on Monday Night Football. I think it’s fitting that the 2nd game, at Lambeau, is this close to Halloween, as seeing Favre run out of the tunnel for the first time wearing purple will be the scariest thing they’ve seen in 2009.

The Packers are coming off two nice wins against the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns, outscoring them a combined 57-3. They needed those wins to keep pace with the VIkings in the division and to continue tinkering with their new 3-4 defensive scheme. They performed really well and should be confident heading into this game. The Vikings are not the Lions or the Browns, however.

Even though the Vikings lost to the Pittsburgh SteAlers last weekend, the Vikings and their fans shouldn’t be too discouraged with the result. Disappointed, sure, but not discouraged. Down 10-13 in the fourth quarter, the Vikings were driving for at least a tie, when left guard Steve Hutchinson, the all-pro best-guard-in-football, got beat to his outside, and the Pitt defender swiped the ball from Favre’s hand, leading to a defensive touchdown. Down 10, the Vikings’ Percy Harvin returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD, bringing the Vikings within three once again. The Vikings defense got another stop (they played really well all game, despite Pitt’s offense clicking the previous couple weeks), and Favre led the offense on another long drive to at least attempt a field goal. But then Chester Taylor, the do-everything savvy veteran running back, dropped a screen pass and the ball deflected into another SteAlers defensive player’s hands for a second defensive touchdown. Two long Vikings drives with no points to show for it (and 14 points for the SteAlers).

In their last two games, versus the Ravens and SteAlers, the Vikings have moved the ball up-and-down the field for most of the game. The Vikings, for the most part, have outplayed their opponent in each game. The Packers defense is not as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, so I believe the Vikings won’t have any problem moving the ball against them, again. Bernard Berrian will be limited due to his left hamstring, but turning their long drives into points will be key when they are in the red zone. And they need to put the ball in the end zone if they are at the one-yard-line with Adrian Peterson in the backfield (inexcusable against the SteAlers).

On the other side, the Packers offense has played pretty well ever since the fourth quarter against the Vikings. Despite having to patch together their offensive line due to injuries, Aaron Rodgers has put up Pro-Bowl caliber numbers through the air. The Vikings will be without Antoine Winfield for a second straight game, and despite the defense playing well without him against the SteAlers, this will be a bigger test. Rodgers is clicking with his receivers. I predicted the SteAlers would pass all over the Vikings last weekend and was wrong. I’m making the same prediction for this game. I think Rodgers passes for a lot of yards in this game.

However, just as in the first time these teams played, he will be pressured by the Vikings’ Wall of America defensive line all game. Jared Allen probably won’t have 4.5 sacks again, but 2-3 sounds right. Earlier in the week, I wasn’t quite sure the Vikings would be able to go to Lambeau Field and win this game. But the more I have thought about how the Vikings have played this year, and how well they played last week going into Pittsburgh, I’m a lot more confident in the team. The Packers aren’t as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, and I’m predicting the dramatic.

In the fourth quarter, with the game close (it’s the way it has to be, right?), Favre will lead the Vikings to a field goal or touchdown to either put the Vikings in the lead or extend their lead to 10 points. Favre played 16 years at Lambeau, so despite the emotions and Packers’ fans best attempts to throw him off, I think he’ll be comfortable there. I’m leaving open the possibility that the Packers kick a field goal to win the game, but don’t believe it will happen.

In a well-played game, Favre will play the best, and the Vikings will go into their bye week 7-1, after a 27-24 victory over the Packers.