matt weighs in

The Minnesota Vikings, Brett Favre, and Brad Childress will put the ridiculousness of the past eight days behind them and beat the Bears on Monday Night Football. Much of the last week has been spent speculating whether or not Favre and Childress can continue to coexist on the Vikings sideline.

My take is that it was over the Monday morning after the terrible game in Carolina, but ESPN could not let this story die, since tonight’s game is on their station. Every team has dialogue between coach and player.

Because it involved Favre, there had to be more read into it than was actually there. Chilly should not have thought about taking Favre out in the 3rd quarter, but Favre should not have talked about it so much in the post game press conference. They did, and the media ran with it.

The Vikings will beat the Bears by 10 or more. The wind and temperature will be a nuisance, but the Vikings should use it to get their running game back on track. Favre should use Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, and Shiancoe in their short passing game, and the Defensive front four, without Pat Williams, should do enough to keep Jay Cutler unbanced all night.

Let’s say 27-13 Vikings. And they should have the 2nd seed in the NFC playoffs locked up.

[Note: Read Part 1 of my college football solution here.]

I am writing most of this as the turkey brines overnight for another great Thanksgiving meal on Thursday. We, at CatNamedPig, hope you enjoy your day of feast, family, and football.

Speaking of football, as a follow-up to my last post when I answered some questions about a post-season, I am going to lay out what a college football playoff might look like, if the BCS group, college Presidents, and other money-hungry individuals associated with the game would break outside their gold-coated boxes and work to find a solution that a majority of fans want. I am still flabbergasted that the BCS group has gone on the offensive in defending their undefendable desire of not finding a playoff solution. Every time I see a new update on their Twitter feed or visit their website, I am more convinced that the guys from The Onion or Sports Pickle are actually behind it – you just can not make up their arguments in support of the current BCS system.

On to the currently mythical 16-team playoff and what the brackets would look like. Here are the latest rankings, 1-25. As some have argued for, if you put the top-16 in a playoff, based on the BCS rankings, here are the teams (and their conference) who would be in this week:

1. Florida (SEC) 2. Alabama (SEC) 3. Texas (Big 12) 4. TCU (Mountain West)
5. Cincinnati (Big East) 6. Boise St. (WAC) 7. Georgia Tech (ACC) 8. Oregon (Pac 10)
9. Pittsburgh (Big East) 10. Ohio St. (Big 10) 11. Iowa (Big 10) 12. Oklahoma St. (Big 12)
13. Penn St. (Big 10) 14. Virginia Tech (ACC) 15. LSU (SEC) 16. Oregon St. (Pac 10)

Not a bad group, but only 8 of the 11 conferences are represented, leaving out the best team from the Sun Belt, Mid-American, and Conference USA. You might say, “Who cares if they are left out?” Well, how about their schools, fans, and conference officials? Not to spend too long on this, but if this is how the playoff bracket was determined, knowing that no school from those conferences would ever appear in the top-16, these conferences should be totally removed by the NCAA from this level of competition. Put them in a lower division, where they would have a chance to compete in a playoff. The only other option, and a bad one, since the BCS pretty much only cares about money, would be to make the financial payoff nice enough to make them go away every year. Three of eleven conferences is 27% – these conferences would share 27% of the revenue generated by the playoff in this scenario.

Now, to my preferred option, where each of the 11 conference winners earns an automatic bid into the 16-team playoff, with the other 5 teams determined based on BCS rank, if they didn’t win their conference. Here are the teams that might make it into a playoff (please note: these are projections without seeding the teams, as there are games to be played in the next few weeks to determine actual champions):

ACC: Georgia Tech
Big 12: Texas
Big East: Cincinnati
Big 10: Ohio St. (already in)
Conference USA: Houston
Mid-American: Temple
Mountain West: TCU (already in)
Pac 10: Oregon
SEC: Florida
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: Boise St.
5 at-large births, based on BCS rankings and did not win their conference: Alabama (SEC), Pittsburgh (Big East), Iowa (Big 10), Oklahoma St. (Big 12), Penn St. (Big 10)

There are your 16 teams. Changes from the first 16 above are the additions of Houston, Temple, and Troy in place of Virginia Tech, LSU, and Oregon St. I have no problem with this.

We love the underdog, just see March Madness when the crowd is really into it, when a #14 seed is up on a #3 seed in the second half. In this case, the three teams left out did not win their conference, most likely lost in their conference championship to the team that is in, so already had their chance to prove they were the better team. The Big 10 has three teams, which might be excessive, but if the BCS rankings have them in the top 16, then they have every right to be in the playoff.

Here is what I like about it, too, and try to follow me. The teams above, right now, are not guaranteed to be in the playoff (except Florida and Alabama who would make the playoff win or lose the SEC Championship game). Texas, too, is in, even if they lose the Big 12 Championship to Nebraska, which would then be in the playoff and Penn St. out. But Cincinnati, if they lost to Pittsburgh in the Big East Championship, might be on the bubble of getting an at-large playoff birth. What about Oregon (Pac 10), Georgia Tech (ACC) and Boise St. (WAC)? If they lost their championship games to Oregon St., Clemson, and Nevada, respectively, would they stay ranked high enough to earn an at-large birth? Fascinating speculation, and all determined on the field, as teams hold their own fate in their hands each week.

Imagine the drama as the season came to a close? One of the arguments the BCS group makes is that a playoff would render the regular season meaningless, and that the way it is now keeps every game important. I have not heard anything credible to back up the claim that a playoff would make games meaningless. They would all still be important, as teams would be fighting to get to the conference championship game and an automatic birth into the playoff. Also, knowing that a good season and a high BCS ranking could still get a team in, they would play their tails off each week, as a season with two or less losses might be good enough.

Another argument that the BCS group uses is that a playoff, no matter how many teams it is, would be controversial to those teams who were close to making it, but did not. They say, “In every sport, brackets began with a few teams. Then schools felt slighted, and so the brackets grew to accommodate more teams.” I am not buying this either, for two reasons.

First, the teams who would not make it in were not conference winners, and probably either would have lost to the conference winner during the season or lost more conference games. They should not feel slighted, they should be upset they lost more games.

Second, I really believe that “bracket creep,” as they call it when brackets expand, is mostly about the money that can be made, not giving “slighted” teams a chance. By expanding the brackets, more games are played, so more revenue for the sport. Look at college basketball’s March Madness. Really, this should be a 32-team field. Teams 33-65 and beyond will not win six games and the championship. They might make a nice run in the tourney, as George Mason (11 seed in 2006) and LSU (11 seed in 1986) did. But they did not win, and I do not believe teams 17 and above in college football are good enough, nor have shown they deserve a chance, to win the national championship. The underdogs we love to cheer for would come from the smaller conference winners and the at-large teams (8 of the 16-team field).

So there you go. Further explanation for how a 16-team playoff would work. Once they are in, the teams could be seeded using either their BCS rank or by a committee, but this should not be an obstacle. Higher seeds would host games in the first two rounds in December, with the semi-finals played on New Year’s Day and the Championship Game played a week later (an actual championship game determined on the field, not the “championship game” we have now).

All other teams not in the playoff, including those who lose in the 1st playoff round, can play in other bowls in December that no one cares about, and the teams who lose in the quarterfinals can also play in two major bowls on New Year’s Day. The NCAA and BCS group, including the conferences, who are so concerned about the bottom line, would rake in huge amounts of money from TV, ticket sales, and merchandise, since there are more games.

There is no reason this can not get done. I know that there are contracts currently in place between the NCAA, BCS and the bowl system, but if we work on an actual playoff now, new contracts could be worked out to either replace the current ones or for when they expire. And, my playoff scenario preserves the bowl system, as is.

College football, the players, coaches, and fans, need a playoff now. The status quo system currently in place will no longer do.

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Other links/videos of interest:

Sports Illustrated’s weekly 16-team playoff bracket

Until a playoff happens, enjoy this football action. I wouldn’t mind giving a ball to the BCS officials and letting this kid have a crack at them.

[Note: Read part 2 of my college football solution here, after reading part 1.]

I will say it again: College football needs a playoff. Here, in the first of two posts, I am going to tell you why and answer some questions in the way of making it happen.

The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) has started Facebook and Twitter accounts to help make their case that the current system of finding the two teams to play for the “national championship” is the best way to do it. I tackled this back in January 2008, but I feel the need to tackle it once more. College football needs to get this right.

The questions that need to be answered are these:

• How many teams should be in a college football playoff?
• How should these teams be determined?
• When do they play the playoff games?
• Where do they play the playoff games?
• What happens to the current bowl system?

I will try to tackle these as quickly as possible.

How many teams should be in a college football playoff?
I am convinced that 16 teams should play in a college football playoff. Eight teams are too few, as there are 11 conferences, and 24 or 32 teams are too many. Just as in college basketball, where the lower seeded teams will not win the championship and there should not be more than 32 teams in March Madness, there are not more than 16 teams in college football that have a chance to win the championship.

How should these teams be determined?
Back in early 2008 when I first wrote about the BCS, my favorite option for determining the 16 playoff teams was to take the top 16 based on the final BCS rankings of the year. I now think that the right way to choose the 16 playoff teams is by taking the 11 conference champions, and then add the top five BCS ranked teams who did not win their conference. This way, the rankings, and playing a tough schedule are still important, since teams can still make the playoff by getting one of the five “at-large” spots. A committee can then rank them 1-16 to determine seeding in the playoffs (or, again, use the BCS rankings to determine seeding).

The conference champions have to be used, otherwise there is no reason for these conferences to exist in the top NCAA division. Troy and Middle Tennessee State play in the Sun Belt conference and Ohio, Temple, and Central Michigan play in the Mid-American conference. One of these teams will win their conference, respectively, yet none are ranked in the top 25 of any poll, including the BCS, so none have a chance to ever be the BCS “champion.” The BCS does not even include all teams or conferences in the top NCAA division there is? Is that fair? For what and for whom are these teams playing? The winners of all conferences need to be included. Teams in the major BCS conferences play each other every year, so their rankings will be inflated, since they are playing teams deemed to be tougher. Compete in your tough conference, or at least be ranked highly, and your team still has a good shot of making it in my playoff scenario.

When do they play the playoff games?
A 16 team playoff would need four weekends to determine a champion. Teams should play an 11- or 12-game regular season schedule with a conference championship game, if needed, played after to determine the winner. This can be done by the first week of December. Playoff games take place over the next five weeks, with a week off between quarterfinals and semi-finals. The semi-finals would be played on New Year’s Day and the Championship game played the week after. Here is what I wrote back in 2008, using the 2007 college season as an example:

There were 14 weeks between Saturday, September 1, 2007, and Saturday, December 1, 2007. This would have allowed teams to play 12 games, have one bye week during the season, and then have conference championship games on December 1st, if the conference chooses to do so.

Tell me this can not work. In that scenario, 1st round games would have been December 8th, quarterfinals on December 15th, time off, then semi-finals on January 1st and the championship game would have been January 8th. It won’t play out exactly like this each year, but the season start date can be moved around to accommodate this schedule each year.

Where do they play the playoff games?
The playoff games would take place on the higher seeded team’s home field in the 1st and 2nd rounds. The semi-finals and championship games would be played on neutral sites, pre-determined by college football. See next question.

What happens to the current college football bowl system?
My favorite part is that the current bowl system could still be utilized. Most of the college bowl games now are filled by teams who finished third or lower in their conference. These teams can still go to the Insight Bowl, the Hawaii Bowl, or the Chik-fil-a Bowl. But people, including the NCAA and BCS bo-bos are more worried ($$$$) about the major bowls played New Year’s Day and after – these are the Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, and National “Championship” Game. These can still be used.

Two of these Bowls can host the four remaining playoff teams in the semi-final games on New Year’s Day. The other two Bowls, whatever date they are set to play, can host the losers of the quarterfinal games. Each Bowl is guaranteed to host a game with great teams playing. The National Championship Game rotates to each BCS Bowl location now, and that could continue, so every four years, each bowl will host two major games, earning major dollars.

I think I will stop here for now. For my Daily Rave on Tuesday or Wednesday, I will attempt to break down how the current college football season will play out and which teams would probably get in my playoff scenario versus taking the top-16 teams in the BCS rankings. Since we do not have a playoff yet, this speculation is not perfect, but it is closer to getting it right than the current BCS system. I have said it many times before, and will say it again here, there is B.S. in B.C.S.

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Again, here are the links for the BCS Facebook and Twitter accounts. Have fun reading the savagery:
Facebook: www.facebook.com/pages/Inside-the-BCS/208135432288
Twitter: twitter.com/INSIDEtheBCS

Also, you will see me put “champion” in quotes whenever I talk about the current college football system of determining its “National Champion.” Sorry, the current “champion” is as mythical as a unicorn or Hogwarts.

Read Part 2!

If you can overlook the overstatements of how Brett Favre likes to play football, check out the video link below. The NFL Network and NFL Films put a microphone on players and coaches all the time for games, and when the Vikings played the Lions, Favre had one on. I really enjoy these compilations the NFL Network puts together after games. I really like how he interacts with Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice.

At one point, I think around the 4:35 mark, as the Vikings come up to the line of scrimmage at the one yard line, Favre sees one of the Lions defensive linemen in the game and asks him, “What they got you in for?” Right before Adrian Peterson scores a touchdown in the spot where the lineman was playing.

Check it out here in the Vikings.com Media Vault.

Finally, a prediction for the Seattle game today. The Seahawks passing game could spell trouble for the Vikings defense. They’ve thrown the ball over 100 times the last two games, a win versus the Lions and a loss at Arizona. The Seahawks gave up 20 points to Detroit, and only scored 20 last week at Arizona, so I think the Minnesota Vikings offense will continue their streak of dominating opposing defenses.

Adrian Peterson will not make the mistakes he made in their win over Detroit last week, leading that game to be closer than it needed to be in the 2nd half. AP goes over 100 yards again, and Favre will throw for over 200 yards with a couple scores, hopefully at least one to Sidney Rice (they need to get him in the end zone). He might throw an interception, too, but the offensive line will give him plenty of time.

Vikings score over 30 again and defeat the Seahawks 34-17.

My earliest memory of questioning a decision by one of my coaches was my senior year of high school. We were in a dogfight with one of our basketball rivals on our home court late in the fourth quarter. They had the ball, and since we were in a zone defense, they were hanging out by half court holding the ball for the last shot. I was playing at the top of our zone, and I look over at our coach, who is motioning frantically to get my attention.

He mouthed the word, “Press, Press,” which was our signal to automatically foul the other team to stop the clock. We usually only used this call late in a close game when we needed to get the ball back. After hesitating for a couple seconds, I ran up and fouled the guy with the ball (my fourth foul, by the way, which ended up not being a big deal in the end, but still only one away from fouling out of a close game that could still go to overtime). There were 11-12 seconds left on the clock. We had two timeouts left, so we called one to ice the free throw shooter just after he lined up for his two shots, and went to talk over our plan.

I probably did not voice my opposition the right way, but I will just say I asked him something on the more negative side of, “What are you doing?” His answer surprised me, but made sense after he said it. He told us, “We have the two best players on the court, so I want the ball in our hands for the last shot.” Huh. He wanted us to win it, not let them win it on our home court. And the kid I fouled was a decent free throw shooter – 70% or so – but not great, so our coach thought the rowdiness of our fans in our little gym might throw him off and he would miss. Almost.

He made one of two free throws, so we were down one. After dribbling up the court, we called timeout with about six seconds left. I got the ball at the top of the key and started driving toward the hoop. The defenders collapsed on me, hit my arms and the ball, so I lost it, but in the scrum, one of our big guys grabbed it, turned around, and hit a shot at the buzzer, so we won by one point.

Did our coach make the right decision to have us foul at the end of a tie game? It worked out, we won the game, so it was the right decision, right? Maybe. We won the game, but the decision to foul led to us being down by one point. But we made the play our coach hoped we would, and we won the game. Positivity all around.

Things didn’t work out so well for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night football against their rival the Colts. You probably know, but the Patriots had 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with about 2:08 left in the game. Coaches, in this situation, punt the ball 100% of the time. Well, now 99.87% of the time. Belichick and their quarterback, Tom Brady, decided to go for it, and if you’ve seen the replay, missed getting the first down by a foot. Indianapolis got the ball deep in Patriots territory, and they ended up driving the 29 yards for the winning touchdown with thirteen seconds left, not enough time for the Patriots to come back.

Belichick has been getting raked over the coals since the end of the game. He is one of the best coaches in the game over the last decade, but fans are calling him an “idiot,” players are saying it was “the worst coaching decision he has ever made,” and sports talk show guys are yelling just a little bit louder than they normally do over the air. The argument is that the Patriots should have made the Colts offense drive 50-80 yards, the distance depending on the punt and return, against their defense, which is not easy to do in the NFL. But the Colts have Peyton Manning, the best quarterback of our generation, and had just moved down the field for a touchdown the previous drive.

Coaches always get blasted for making the safe decisions in games. They call a running play on 3rd and 16. They take a knee at the end of a tie game to go to overtime, instead of trying to move the ball down the field to try to score. They punt the ball from midfield when they are losing by six points with only five or six minutes left. Or they kick a field goal on 4th and goal when they are inside the five yard line, instead of going for a touchdown. There are many instances in a game where both fans and radio guys waste too much time telling each other the coach should have done the exact opposite. Of course, if the coaches had done what the fans and radio guys wanted and it did not work out as they hoped, then they would be saying the coach should have called what he actually did in the game. Fans are always right when the game is over.

I loved the decision by Belichick to go for it on fourth down and do not really care that they did not get the first down. Their defense still had a chance to stop the Colts and win the game. The main reason that I loved the decision is that he was showing trust in his high-powered offense to win the game for the team. Just like my high school coach, he wanted the ball in his team’s hands, not his opponent’s. We never see this in the NFL, especially when a team is playing on the road, as the Patriots were. Many people are saying that Belichick did not trust his defense to stop the Colts one more time. This might be partly true, especially with Manning on the other side, but I think Belichick trusted his offense more than he did not trust his defense. Their offense has defined their team the last few seasons, so he gave them a chance to make a play to win the game. We always say we want teams to play to win, rather than play not to lose. And now, when a team does that, but it doesn’t work out, then we want the opposite?

The Patriots had played a great game and probably proved throughout that they were the better team. In games, they go for it more than most other teams on fourth down and get the first down at a higher percentage than most other teams – 68.5% success (37/54) on fourth down the last three years. So it isn’t like they were doing something out of the ordinary. They have a really good offensive line, a Hall of Fame quarterback, two great receivers, and a running back with decent hands. If any team should have the confidence to make those two yards, New England was it. I will place the blame for not gaining that extra foot on the running back for not running far enough past the first down line before coming back to catch the ball.

The only negative I will throw out is that it could affect their playoff position. They are going to win their own division, so losing the game will not keep them out of the playoffs, but with the Cincinnati Bengals record at 7-2, the Patriots have an uphill battle get the 2nd home field spot in the AFC. But they have shown that they can go to an opponent’s stadium and play pretty well. I do not think they are worried about playing the AFC Championship game back on the Colts home field. Their three losses, all on the road, are by a combined 11 points (Jets, Broncos, and Colts), with the last two coming on the last play of the game. I think the Patriots are still in a good position.

I’ll let you know if I feel the same way if the Minnesota Vikings are ever playing against their rival and lose the game, because their coach made a gutsy call that did not work out.

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Another opinion, with examples of other coaching decisions gone wrong.
And another, by one of my favorite satire writers in any genre.
And a third, blaming the official more than the coaching decision.
Finally, NFL statistics show it was the right decision to go for it on 4th down.

[Update: After a day of thought, I changed the name of this weekly post to Weekly Weight, instead of Weekly Rave. Why, you ask? Because I'm going to try to do a Daily Rave. We'll see how that goes.]

This is the first ever weekly rave, where I will write about something I am really enjoying at the moment. If nothing else, it will get me to sit down in front of the computer to actually write more than a couple times per month. I have an easy topic this week: the Minnesota Vikings.

Even though the Vikings didn’t play, due to their bye, they extended their lead in the NFC North division, since all three other teams lost. The Packers…hahaha…ummm…give me a second…uhh, the Packers…heeheehee. Oh my, let’s try again. The Packers lost to the Buccaneers, who had previously not won a game this year. The Bears were destroyed at home by Arizona, 21-41 and were actually down 7-31 at the half. And the Lions were the Lions. Up early in their game at Seattle, but ultimately blew it and lost by 12.

Green Bay might be in a free fall, as I have read nothing positive in the last 24 hours since their loss. Sports writers are second-guessing the play calling, the offensive line schemes to protect Aaron Rodgers, and questioning the change to the 3-4 defense. Packers fans are howling worse, calling for Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s head, General Manager Ted Thompson’s head, or, in most cases, both. Chicago can not play good defense and score enough points in the same week (except against the Browns). Jay Cutler’s passing numbers weren’t bad in Sunday, but the defense couldn’t stop Arizona, giving up five passing touchdowns of their own. They seem to be lost right now, as well, with no clear answers in how to fix it soon enough to make a push to the playoffs. The Lions are who we thought they were. Terrible, and on their way to no more than two wins on the season.

Which brings us to the Vikings. They are sitting 7-1 and on top of the division by three games (Packers and Bears are both 4-4). And since the Vikings beat the Packers twice and hold the tie-breaker, really they are four games up on them. The Vikings and Bears usually split their season series, so Chicago will have a really hard time gaining any ground head-to-head. And since the Vikings have three very winnable home games in a row coming out of the bye, beginning with the Lions on Sunday, the chances of either Chicago or Green Bay coming from behind are very slim. Never say never, but I am saying never.

When Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress made the call to Brett Favre in mid-August, I am pretty sure this is where he was hoping the team would be sitting. Actually, this is probably even better. I thought they would be 6-2, at best, with at least one loss to the Packers and either the Ravens or Steelers. But they are even better. Favre has not looked the same as he did the last half of last year, when he was fighting a nagging pain in his throwing arm, or as he did for most of the last few seasons in Green Bay. He’s protecting the ball, making good reads, and putting the ball in his receivers hands where they can make plays. Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe, Bernard Berrian, and Percy Harvin are all sharing in the benefits of having Favre at quarterback. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is outstanding, and there are not many balls he is throwing that shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place.

People want to criticize the running game, because Adrian Peterson isn’t breaking off the long runs for touchdowns that we are accustomed to seeing. Not sure we should complain when he is still on pace for nearly 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns. Those are MVP numbers. The offensive line has had trouble opening big holes consistently. Whether it is because there is a new center, 7-8 defensive players at the line, or they are just getting beat has not been a huge problem so far. Peterson has been able to break off at least one long run in almost every 2nd half, so I think they’ll be fine, and AP will run wild all day against some pretty bad teams left on the schedule.

The Vikings have had some outstanding, and exciting plays, in the first half of the season, as well. My favorites: Peterson’s long TD run versus the Browns in week one, where he shoved a defender out of bounds and accelerated to the end zone, Favre’s end-of-game TD throw to Greg Lewis to beat the 49ers with :02 left, Percy Harvin’s kickoff return TDs, Sidney Rice’s long catch versus the Ravens to set up the game-winning field goal, Peterson running over William Gay for a nice gain in the 2nd half versus the Steelers, and Favre’s seven TDs (0 interceptions) versus the Packers.

Overall, the Vikings are sitting very nicely going into their last eight games. I would argue that they should be 8-0, along with the Saints and Colts, because they have outplayed every team they have played so far, including in the Steelers loss. Right now, the only NFC teams I would be nervous about playing in the playoffs are the Saints, the Cowboys, and maybe the Eagles and Cardinals, who are both pretty inconsistent. This we most likely know: the Vikings shouldn’t have to play outdoors in the playoffs, as they should end up the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC.

Whether or not they make it all the way to the Super Bowl will be decided, but what team has played better and more consistent than the Vikings through eight games? Colts have squeaked by two mediocre teams the last two weeks at home, and the Saints have fallen behind in the first half of at least three games before rallying to win. The Vikings will keep the pressure on offensively and can definitely score enough points to win any game they play. I like their chances.

I think Minnesota Vikings’ fans have come around to the idea of seeing Brett Favre wearing a purple uniform. At least I have. Maybe it’s the team’s 6-1 record. Maybe it’s his 12 TDs and 3 INTs. Or maybe it’s seeing him move the ball up-and-down the field each week, no matter who the opponent has been. Whatever it is, after seeing a really good Vikings team struggle to a 10-6 record in 2008, led by erratic quarterback play, having Favre throwing lasers all over the field with great confidence should have put aside anyone’s doubt that this was a good move by the team.

I wonder what it would take for Green Bay Packers’ fans to do the same. Seeing a Packers win over the Vikings on Sunday at Lambeau Field will probably help, but only with a total collapse by the Vikings offense, including multiple interceptions by Favre and one late in the game, would the fans be able to fully let go and move on with the team they have. I have believed for some time now that Packers’ fans aren’t as angry with Favre for playing for the Vikings as they are afraid of what he could do with a team ready to do some damage in the post-season. Their fears have been realized through the first seven games of the season, including the first Favre butchering in the teams’ October 5th match-up on Monday Night Football. I think it’s fitting that the 2nd game, at Lambeau, is this close to Halloween, as seeing Favre run out of the tunnel for the first time wearing purple will be the scariest thing they’ve seen in 2009.

The Packers are coming off two nice wins against the hapless Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns, outscoring them a combined 57-3. They needed those wins to keep pace with the VIkings in the division and to continue tinkering with their new 3-4 defensive scheme. They performed really well and should be confident heading into this game. The Vikings are not the Lions or the Browns, however.

Even though the Vikings lost to the Pittsburgh SteAlers last weekend, the Vikings and their fans shouldn’t be too discouraged with the result. Disappointed, sure, but not discouraged. Down 10-13 in the fourth quarter, the Vikings were driving for at least a tie, when left guard Steve Hutchinson, the all-pro best-guard-in-football, got beat to his outside, and the Pitt defender swiped the ball from Favre’s hand, leading to a defensive touchdown. Down 10, the Vikings’ Percy Harvin returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD, bringing the Vikings within three once again. The Vikings defense got another stop (they played really well all game, despite Pitt’s offense clicking the previous couple weeks), and Favre led the offense on another long drive to at least attempt a field goal. But then Chester Taylor, the do-everything savvy veteran running back, dropped a screen pass and the ball deflected into another SteAlers defensive player’s hands for a second defensive touchdown. Two long Vikings drives with no points to show for it (and 14 points for the SteAlers).

In their last two games, versus the Ravens and SteAlers, the Vikings have moved the ball up-and-down the field for most of the game. The Vikings, for the most part, have outplayed their opponent in each game. The Packers defense is not as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, so I believe the Vikings won’t have any problem moving the ball against them, again. Bernard Berrian will be limited due to his left hamstring, but turning their long drives into points will be key when they are in the red zone. And they need to put the ball in the end zone if they are at the one-yard-line with Adrian Peterson in the backfield (inexcusable against the SteAlers).

On the other side, the Packers offense has played pretty well ever since the fourth quarter against the Vikings. Despite having to patch together their offensive line due to injuries, Aaron Rodgers has put up Pro-Bowl caliber numbers through the air. The Vikings will be without Antoine Winfield for a second straight game, and despite the defense playing well without him against the SteAlers, this will be a bigger test. Rodgers is clicking with his receivers. I predicted the SteAlers would pass all over the Vikings last weekend and was wrong. I’m making the same prediction for this game. I think Rodgers passes for a lot of yards in this game.

However, just as in the first time these teams played, he will be pressured by the Vikings’ Wall of America defensive line all game. Jared Allen probably won’t have 4.5 sacks again, but 2-3 sounds right. Earlier in the week, I wasn’t quite sure the Vikings would be able to go to Lambeau Field and win this game. But the more I have thought about how the Vikings have played this year, and how well they played last week going into Pittsburgh, I’m a lot more confident in the team. The Packers aren’t as good as either the Ravens or the SteAlers, and I’m predicting the dramatic.

In the fourth quarter, with the game close (it’s the way it has to be, right?), Favre will lead the Vikings to a field goal or touchdown to either put the Vikings in the lead or extend their lead to 10 points. Favre played 16 years at Lambeau, so despite the emotions and Packers’ fans best attempts to throw him off, I think he’ll be comfortable there. I’m leaving open the possibility that the Packers kick a field goal to win the game, but don’t believe it will happen.

In a well-played game, Favre will play the best, and the Vikings will go into their bye week 7-1, after a 27-24 victory over the Packers.

The Minnesota Vikings are 6-0, and I have a very good feeling that some Vikings fans, and non-fans, think the team should apologize for being undefeated. As though they would actually feel better about the team if they were only 5-1 or 4-2 going into today’s game against Pittsburgh. However, the fans would not feel better and would most likely be calling for Coach Brad Childress’s head louder than usual and wishing for more sacks from the league-leading defensive line.

A little perspective: the 2007 New England Patriots, the greatest team ever to not win the Super Bowl, had four games decided by four points or less. In at least two of them, they needed a turnover to preserve their lead, and versus Baltimore, they stopped a receiver at the 2-yard line, securing another victory. Now, I’m not saying this year’s Vikings team will be 19-0 heading into the Super Bowl, but I am saying that all teams, over the course of an amazing season, have last minute (or second) nailbiters. They’re not lucky to win them. They either did enough earlier in the game to win (vs. Green Bay), they made one more play than their opponent (vs. San Francisco), or the other team failed to execute under pressure when it mattered (Baltimore special teams). The Vikings dominated a decent Ravens team for 50 minutes and moved the ball and scored points to keep the lead when they needed them.

It’s not luck. It’s the course of the season. And it all determines seeding in the playoffs. And I like where the Vikings are sitting right now.
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As for the game today in Pittsburgh, I think the Vikings are good enough on offense to put 30+ points on the board against a good Steelers defense, who have Polamalu back at safety, but he’s not a full 100% yet. Favre and his receivers are doing really nice things in the passing game, and AP had a great day last week against a stout run defense similar to the Steelers. Scoring won’t be the problem.

Stopping Pittsburgh’s pass offense will be the problem. Roethlisberger has thrown for a ridiculous number of yards the last few weeks, including 417 against a bad Browns team. I’ve half-jokingly asked people this week if Big Ben has a chance of breaking the NFL record for passing yards in a game, which is 554, set by Norm Van Brocklin in 1951. The answer is always no, but comes with a nervous laugh. It can’t happen, right.

The only way the Vikings win is if they can intercept Big Ben 2+ times and turn them into touchdowns. The Wall of America has to put constant pressure on him, not only getting close, but actually sacking him when they have their hands on him. He is a big QB and is too good at finding an open receiver for a big gain when he is on the move. The Vikings need at least four sacks.

With all that in mind, I think Pittsburgh wins a shootout, with both teams scoring 27 or more points. If the Vikings get to 35, then they’ll win, but I think they lose their first game of the season 29-34.

And remember, if they lose, their’s no shame in being 6-1 on top of the division. Looking ahead, the Vikings will be at worst, 6-2 going into their bye week, with three very winnable home games after. That’s 9-2. Who would be disappointed with that?

Sports prognosticators like to use the phrase, “On paper, [insert superior team here] is so much better than [insert inferior team here].” Usually, it’s a big market team named as the superior team and a team from Minnesota, Milwaukee, Memphis, etc. who receives the inferior label. Such is the case in the American League Divisional Series that begins tonight between the MN Twins and NY Yankees.

The Twins earned their way into the playoffs, whether they deserved it or not. They beat a badly slumping Detroit Tigers team in their epic play-in game Tuesday night. Orlando Cabrera, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer have been on fire at the plate and the Twins’ relievers have been really good since September 1st. The team looked dead in the standings a month ago, but that was before they improbably reeled off 17 wins in 21 games to come all the way back and defeat the Tigers. Sure they needed some final Metrodome Magic, but I’ll make no apologies, as the Tigers faltered late and didn’t earn the playoff spot.

Which brings us to the series against the Yankees. I heard the lineup they’re running out there tonight, and I don’t know a more packed lineup in baseball. Jeter, Damon, Texeira, Rodriguez, Matsui, Posada, and Cabrera (who would bat 3-6 in most lineups). After Alex Rodriguez returned to their lineup, when many thought the team was underachieving, they really took off, passing the Rays and Red Sox over the summer, and never looked back. They will be hard to beat this post-season. Their pitching isn’t deep after Sabathia, so if the Twins can somehow steal one in New York, it’s their only chance to upset the mighty Bronx Bombers.

I don’t see the Twins winning three games against the Yankees. New York will win the first playoff series in the new Yankee Stadium in four games. Perhaps Minnesota and the fans in the Metrodome can provide one final miracle before saying goodbye to the 2009 season. Win Twins!

The Minnesota Vikings moved to 4-0 in gunslingin’ fashion. Many in the media are comparing Brett Favre’s performance on Monday Night Football to that of a surgeon, slicing the Green Bay Packers defense with the precision of a very delicate surgery. I would argue that he was more of a butcher, leaving the Packers pass defense a chopped and bloodied carcass on the Metrodome Mall of America Field turf.

I thought the Vikings would win by around 10 points, which was close to the 30-23 final score, and I think I’m comfortable with how the last five minutes played out, when the Packers cut the lead from 16 points down to 7. However, it seemed like the Vikings outplayed the Packers by more than what the final score indicated. And I’ll take that, since it means they’re 4-0, leading the Bears by one game in the division and two games up on the Packers. The win also moved the Vikings to 3-0 in the NFC, which could come into play when deciding home-field advantage in the playoffs.

My Vikings’ MVPs for the game are:
* Favre ->Not a surprise, considering the game he had. But it was surprising how well he played against his former team, based on the Vikings’ passing game previously this season. Maybe the end of the 49ers game last week, when he threw the TD with :02 left, gave Favre and the receivers confidence to trust each other and be more on the same page than they’ve been so far. Whatever happened in practice last week, we’ll take it.
* Packers offensive line ->What a mess that unit was. They knew they were going to have to be perfect throughout, and they weren’t even mediocre for any stretch of the game: 8 sacks given up (4.5 to Jared Allen), multiple hits on Aaron Rodgers, no consistent holes for the running game, and no push at all when they were at the one-yard line going for an important TD in the 2nd half. They need to work stuff out in the coming weeks, or the Packers will be out of the playoff picture before the midway point of the season.
* Jared Allen, Ben Leber, Sydney Rice (tie) ->Allen was a beast. Besides the 4.5 sacks, he had multiple hits on Rodgers and had him on the run a few other times. The Packers coaches rarely gave the left tackle help, and Allen took advantage. Leber continues to make plays when they’re needed. He single-handedly kept nine points off the board in the 2nd half. Seven when he made a tackle at the one-yard line on the goal line stand, and another two when he tipped the two-point conversion pass, keeping the score 30-20 in the 4th quarter. He came up big. Rice, like Leber, continues to make plays and is growing as a 3rd year wide receiver. He’s caught a touchdown pass two straight weeks and made the two huge recoveries on the onside kicks to end the game (side note: those were spectacular onside kicks by Crosby of the Packers. Drove the ball into the ground where it bounced hiiiiiigh up in the air. The Vikings did a great job of fending off the rushing Packers, so Rice had time to jump and get the ball). With Bernard Berrian showing signs of being over his hamstring injury, having Rice on the other side as a bona-fide weapon makes the Viking offense quite scary.

Overall, a great night at MOA Field for the Vikings, their fans, and for Brett Favre against his former team. He downplayed the game all week, but we know, based on his reactions on the TD passes, that it meant a little bit more than any other game.

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The Minnesota Twins, too, play a huge game at the Metrodome (I think it’s still called the Metrodome for them). Anyway, the Detroit Tigers caught a break by having a day off before today’s deciding baseball game. The Tigers limped into game 163, having lost 4 of 7 games the previous week to blow the American League Central Division, a division they led since May.

Scott Baker is pitching for the Twins, and I really think he is going to earn his nickname “Big Spot Scott.” He’s going on plenty of rest and should pitch superbly, if he’s able to control his nerves. The Tigers counter with a 20-year old rookie in Porcello, who should end up with the AL Rookie of the Year. I think this spot will be too big for him, and the Twins’ hot bats will continue to stay on fire.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins get to Porcello early, with 55,000 screaming fans panting for more Metrodome magic after last night’s football game. Joe Nathan will close out the game, and I predict Minnesota wins by 2-3 runs.

Bring on the Yankees!