matt weighs in

The Yankees beat the Twins on Wednesday night in game one of their ALDS series. We have seen the result and way the game unfolded before. The last few years, when these teams meet in the playoffs, it’s similar to Bill Murray waking up in the movie Groundhog Day: new day, same events.

The Yankees lineup is stacked, so I guess they will get their runs somehow – probably 5-6 per game – unless Pavano and the other Twins starters throw one heck of a gem. The Twins aren’t getting blown out by the Yankees, so here is what they need to do to win, which is the opposite of what has happened the last couple years.

1. Score early and often and keep pouring it on – the Twins have scored first in many of their games with the Yankees. We have seen that this doesn’t matter. They need more.
2. Drive in men on base – the Twins were 0-7 in game one with runners in scoring position. Jim Thome and JJ Hardy had great opportunities to either give the Twins the lead in the late innings or tie it when they fell behind.
3. Bullpen hold strong – Joe Nathan gave it up last year. Jesse Crain couldn’t hold the Yankees in game one this year. These guys need to make one more pitch. Just do it.
4. Get the big hit – ARod & Texiera last year. Big Tex again in game one. The Yankees seem to get the big hit late in the game that the Twins can’t get. They have a lineup of homerun hitters, which is a great advantage when one swing of the bat can make the difference. The Twins need two or more homeruns combined from Cuddyer, Young, Kubel and Thome to win, and I hope that, finally, one can come in innings seven to nine.

Pretty simple, right? I don’t have any problems with how Ron Gardenhire managed in game one, as some have said. I liked Liriano pitching against Granderson, a sub-.200 hitter versus left-handed pitchers. Grandy-man just won that one. And Jesse Crain has been really good this year, so having him pitch against Texiera was probably the right move. Tex has more HRs as a lefty, but I would have rather had Crain in there than Fuentes, at this point.

With Morneau out, I wish the Twins had better bat options on the bench. They don’t, so the starting nine have to be on for nine innings, so this series can get evened up.

Pavano will pitch huge tonight. Let’s take this back to the concrete jungle and get after the rest of the mediocre Yankees pitching staff.

On a gut feeling alone, I think this is the year the Minnesota Twins finally get past the New York Yankees in the MLB playoffs. The Twins were not as good a team the previous three times they have played in recent years. I’ll take the Twins to win in four games.

Even without Justin Morneau, the Twins lineup is much improved, as we saw throughout the season. They have hit for more power thanks to the addition of Jim Thome, and Delmon Young had a breakout year at the plate. Young gets the nod in the cleanup spot, partly due to the fact that the Twins will face two Yankees lefties in CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte the first two games at Target FIeld.

The key for the Twins, though, will be Denard Span, Orlando Hudson, and Joe Mauer getting on base. They need to combine to be on base six or more times per game in order for the Twins to win. I predict this happens, and once on-base, Span and Hudson should have a decent chance to steal some bases. If Mauer hits higher than .370 in the series, the Twins win.

As for pitching, I think Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano will step up and pitch very well in the two home games for the Twins. Frankie has a tendency to get fired up, which could be a problem in the spotlight, but if he gets through the first three to four innings with only giving up a run or less and throws less than 45 pitches, he’ll settle down in the middle innings and go at least seven. Pavano proved last year that he has what it takes to face his former team with confidence and hold them down.

The Twins bullpen has been very good throughout the year, with a few rough spots at times, but Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, Matt Capps and company will get the job done. I don’t think we’ll see any late-game heroics from Alex Rodriguez this year.

As for the Yankees, they scored a ton of runs during the regular season and hit a ton of home runs. Looking at their lineup, there are a bunch of .270 hitters with 20-plus homeruns. They are a very dangerous lineup, but in the cool air at Target Field, in combination with Liriano and Pavano pitching, I think the ball stays in the park more than it might have in Metrodome.

Twins will sweep both games at Target Field versus the Yankees – I’ll say 4-2 in game one and 6-5 in game two – and then will win game four in New York. Just like the Bulls needed to get by the Pistons in the NBA to finally win their titles, the Twins need to exorcise the whooping the Yankees have put on them this last decade. This is the year.

Win Twins!

** Photo found here using Google image search. **

The Minnesota Twins open their new ballpark, Target Field, today for an exhibition game versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the past month, I have probably read and looked at 40-50 stories, reviews, Flickr photo streams or videos of the building, and I am insanely excited to make my first visit with the family. I estimate that the stories I’ve read represent one-fifth of the total I’ve come across, especially coming through my Twitter feed. There is a nice buzz about the Twins, which is well-deserved right now.

Here are just a few facts I have learned about Target Field:

* First Twins home game outdoors since September 30, 1981
* Target Field has a capacity of 39,504
* The infield is made up of 93% sand, allowing for quick drainage when it rains (up to an inch per hour) and is heated at or near 58 degrees Fahrenheit. Translation: the Twins will play through a lot of rain
* Main scoreboard (as of today) is the fourth largest in Major League Baseball

Two other construction notes that I find interesting are that the wood-backed seats located in select sections are the first wood seats to be added in a new ballpark since before World War II. Also, the Budweiser Roof Deck in left field is the only deck inside a MLB stadium – think Chicago & Baltimore, where decks are on top of buildings across the street.

I just can not get enough of the new field. When I was having trouble getting tickets online to a couple games when single-game tickets went on sale March 13th, I was more than happy to drive to the box office. I didn’t look around as much as I wanted to, as we had plans, but I look forward to a couple afternoon games in May.

As great as the ballpark is, the 2010 Twins team should be nearly as impressive. The front office has built a lineup to win now, and the offense should have no problem scoring runs. If they were still playing in Metrodome, I don’t think the team signs free agents Orlando Hudson or Jim Thome, and they might not have given lengthy contracts to OF Denard Span (5 years) and SP Nick Blackburn (4 years). Joe Mauer was always going to get his money.

The estimated payroll of $96 million (50% higher than opening day 2009) is a direct result of the expected revenue the team hopes to pull in from the new Target Field. That, and the owners are some of the richest people in Minnesota, so, yeah, they can spend some money in the coming years.

One of the Twins items I came across on Twitter within the last week was a Twins fan and blogger looking for 2010 Minnesota Twins predictions. I thought, “Hey, I can do that!” Without further delay, here are my Twins predictions for 2010:

Twins-Specific Predictions
- Twins MVP: Joe Mauer (best in the A.L. has to be best on the team, right?)
- Twins Top Pitcher: Scott Baker (expect big things from Big Spot Scott)
- Twins Best Rookie: Danny Valencia (when he makes it to Minneapolis)
- Twins Most Improved Player: Francisco Liriano (could average 12+ Ks per 9 innings)
- Bold Predictions (think of several if you’d like): Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer finish with 15+ homeruns (I would say 20+, but not sure Thome gets enough at bats. Also, whoever becomes the closer will finish with 30+ saves.
- A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals
- Three Keys to Success for the Twins: 1) someone emerging as primary closer 2) M & M boys’ health holds up through October 3) one starter getting 20 victories.

Rest of the League Predictions
- A.L. MVP: Mauer or Mark Teixeira
- N.L. MVP: Hanley Ramirez (the only one to supplant Pujols here)
- A.L. Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (his talent & team allow him to explode)
- N.L. Cy Young: Roy Halladay (move to NL will be very good
- A.L. Rookie of the Year: Michael Brantley
- N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward (this guy will be good for a long time)
- A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Denard Span (nice lineup behind him & he will produce)
- N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Stephen Strasburg (awesome pitching prospect)
- A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Francisco Liriano
- N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Carpenter
- A.L. Playoff Predictions: Twins, Yankees, Rays & Mariners
- N.L. Playoff Predictions: Phillies, Cardinals, Braves & Dodgers
- World Series Prediction: Yankees beat Phillies (these teams might meet in W.S. for next five years)

I really want to pick the Twins to win the World Series, but not having the number one starter like other teams and losing Joe Nathan as their closer costs them in the post-season once again. Nathan would have been better this October than last year. The Twins will score runs, challenging the Yankees for the MLB lead this year, but will just miss the World Series.

It will be a very successful year for the Minnesota Twins, and fans should enjoy the season. We have our Twins gear, thanks to a long trip to Target the other day, and we’re ready to watch outdoor baseball at Target Field for the first time in downtown Minneapolis.